Monday, September 21, 2009

Today on USDJPY - Daily and H4 charts support Long trades.

On the Daily chart above, we could observe that price has broken above the downward channel, as well as a critical resistance level - the most recent Weekly swing low @ 91.71 (which we've highlighted using the lower blue broken line on the Daily chart). Although, price is yet to close above the 91.71 resistance level (we would only be able to ascertain that after the close of today’s candle), its decisive break above the level suggests a continuation of the bullish correction in a strong downtrend. The next resistance level where price upward correction has a high probability of being halted is @ 93.03 - the fib. 38.2% retracement level, which, combined with a previous Daily swing low @ 93.07 (that we've highlighted using the upper blue broken line), has formed a resistance-confluence. From a day-trade perspective, we seem to have a good opportunity of going Long on the USDJPY as price is still about a 100 pips from the resistance-confluence we just identified.

On the H4 chart above, price has broken the most recent swing high @ 91.60 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line) upward. That shifts our bias in favor of an upward price move. The green horizontal line @ 91.01 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts - using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels - to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today's up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

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