Thursday, September 17, 2009

Today on EURUSD - Daily and H4 charts support Long trades, but...

On the Daily chart above, the story remains pretty much the same as yesterday's: though the bulls keep showing their determination, price is still hovering around the critical resistance area (that we discussed yesterday): a confluence of Weekly fib. 61.8% retracement and the most recent Monthly chart swing high @ 1.4719 (which we've highlighted using the upper blue broken line on the Daily chart). Price also seems resolute on breaking decisively above the upward channel: we would confirm that at the end of today, based on today's candle close. Really, there's no reason to be thinking Short now - though the steep bulls' move seems set for imminent correction. The point is no one can predict precisely when the correction would happen. In all, all that we currently know is that the bulls are still in control. Let's keep on "riding" the bulls with caution.

On the H4 chart above, price has stayed above the most recent swing high @ 1.4651 (that we've highlighted using the blue broken line), which we've identified since yesterday. That sustains our bias in favor of an upward price move. The green horizontal line @ 1.4640 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact. However, to buttress our cautious position, we have a very obvious waving negative MACD Divergence. Although, it's not yet a valid divergence, it signals the possibility of an imminent price retracement downward. Let's keep all these warning signs in mind as we look for our Long positions.

However, we still need our Hourly charts - using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels - to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today's up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

No comments:

Post a Comment