Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Today on EURUSD - Daily and H4 charts support Long trades, but Weekly chart cautions.

On the Weekly chart above, we could see that price is in a strong uptrend; however, we are at a critical resistance area: a confluence of fib. 61.8% retracement and the most recent Monthly chart swing high @ 1.4719 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line on the Weekly chart) tells us price might currently be under intense resistance pressure.

On the Daily chart above, we have a clearer view of the proximity of price to the critical resistance level @ 1.4719 (that we've highlighted using the upper blue broken line), which we discussed on the Weekly chart. In addition, price is at the upper edge of an upward channel - another sign showing the possibility of resistance pressure. However, the bulls are yet to show signs that they are buckling under any resistance pressure as the previous day candle closed as a bullish candle, and price just broke above the previous day high. Personally, until the bulls show sign of weakness, I'll keep believing they are in control. Nevertheless, it would be wise not to disregard the resistance-confluence. Again, today might be another holiday for conservative traders. For those of us that might want to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt, let's be very cautious.

On the H4 chart above, price has broken the most recent swing high @ 1.4651 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line) upward. That sustains our bias in favor of an upward price move. The green horizontal line @ 1.4560 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts - using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels - to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today's up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

No comments:

Post a Comment