Today on USDJPY – Daily and H4 charts support Short trades.

On the Daily chart above, we could see that the USDJPY pair has been in downward channel formation since the second week of this month, and currently, traders still seem comfortable with the formation. After several days of hugging the upper edge of the channel, price is probably ready to now test its lower edge. There seems to be enough room for price to continue its southward journey before encountering a potential major support – the Weekly chart most recent swing low @ 91.70 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line). The strength of the 91.70 level is buttressed by the channel formation as we would observe that the lower edge of the channel – a potential reversal area in itself – might coincide with the 91.70 support to form a support confluence if price eventually travelled down that far. In all, the current price behavior is good enough to sustain our bias for a downward price move – from a day trade perspective.

On the H4 chart above, yesterday, price broke the most recent swing low @ 93.20 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. That sustains our bias in favor of a downward price move. The white horizontal line @ 94.06 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

Update on today’s GBPUSD Long Trade set-up

If you were able to identify the GBPUSD Long trade set-up and took the trade, that’s great. I took it, and, currently, I’m still in it. It was slightly nerve-racking as price surged downward toward the initial Stop Loss before it reversed just 5 pips to the Stop. I’ll explain the steps I’ve taken so far in managing the trade.

Please NOTE that the Daily chart, above, isn’t really supporting a Long trade as price is currently forming lower highs and lows; though, a retracement is occurring, price is testing the upward trend-line – a potential resistance area. More conservative traders would have refrained from this trade. Personally, what I did was to reduce my risk. The H4 chart, however, supports a Long trade.

On the Hourly chart above, price pattern was forming higher highs and higher lows; hence, I drew the Fibonacci tool using the most recent Hourly swing low @ 1.6261, and the temporary price-top @ 1.6380, and then identified an area around the fib. 78.6% ret. level as a potential price reversal area to place my Limit Order (Pls NOTE the 78.6% ret. level was supported by pivots, other fibs., and previous highs).
Initial Stop Loss was placed 2pips below the most recent Hourly swing low @ 1.6259 (broker’s spread included). Primary profit target @ 1.6411 (two pips below the fib. 127% ext.).

On The 15min chart above, after the Limit Order was triggered @ 1.6294, price continued downward – almost stopping me out, but then reversed sharply. Afterward, as price moved almost 30 pips in my favor, and struggling to stay above a Weekly pivot @ 1.6312, keeping the dissenting Daily chart in mind, I decided to move my Stop Loss to break-even.
As price moved further upward, I exited one out of two lots @ 31-pip profit (precisely 1.6325). With that, the trade is already profitable. The profit target for the second lot is 1.6411 (117pip profit). Further Stop Loss adjustments would be based on new Hourly swing lows.

Today on USDCHF – Daily and H4 charts support Short trades, but…

On the Daily chart above, yesterday, the Swissy (as well as the Euro and Cable) rallied against the Dollar. As a result, some charts’ formations were altered. Studying the USDCHF Daily chart, we would observe that price dashed downward to break a critical support level – the most recent Daily low @ 1.0551 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. Price-break below this level gives a good sign that the bears might currently be in control. However, as discussed on last week Thursday, the 1.0600 level is a major support area that has remained very critical since May 2008 (please refer to your Weekly and Monthly charts); hence, we should be very careful as the bears might be contending with some fierce bulls around this level. Although, price is currently below 1.0600, personally, I believe price has to close decisively below the entire 1.0600 area to ascertain the strength of the Swissy. In all, the Daily chart – from a day trade perspective – currently leans toward downward price movement.

On the H4 chart above, price has broken the most recent swing low @ 1.0579 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. This automatically shifts our bias in favor of a downward price move. The bulls’ strength – as discussed on the Daily chart – could also be observed on the H4 chart as price sharply pierced below the most recent swing low, but was forced to close above it. However, based on this method’s parameters, once a most recent H4 swing low is broken, our bias shifts in favor of the bears. The white horizontal line @ 1.0702 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

Today on GBPUSD – Daily and H4 charts support Short trades.

On the Daily chart above, again, as anticipated, price continued its movement downward. The “more recent” upward trend-line, which we observed yesterday as the new area price was attempting to break downward, has been decisively broken. Also, price has broken the most recent Daily swing low @ 1.6274 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. These new signs – in addition to the still-valid negative MACD Divergence and higher time frames’ price actions that we discussed earlier this month – are simply telling us the bears are in control. However, the previous day low @ 1.6158 (not highlighted on this Daily chart to avoid clustering) is another level we might like to keep in mind as a potential support area. Price-break below the 1.6158 level is a good sign that price is ready to continue its downward move.

On the H4 chart above, the swing low @ 1.6418 (that we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line), which price broke below on Monday, still remains the most recent swing low. That automatically sustains our bias in favor of a downward price move. The previous day low @ 1.6158 (that we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line), which we discussed on the Daily chart, is shown on this H4 chart. Please let’s keep the level in mind. The white horizontal line @ 1.6443 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

Money Smarts For Turbulent Times

Personal Note: Dr. Briles' years of experience in personal finance reflect fully in this article. There’s no need for any additional note: the article is best in its purest form.

By [http://ezinearticles.com/?expert=Judith_Briles]Judith Briles

Money Fears, Most Have a Few . . . What's Yours?

The average person works 10,000 days during her career (that's 40 years if you do the math). How much time are you willing to commit to figuring out what to do with the money you make? Or how to make it grow? And what about determining what you need to support you when you step away from your nursing career?

No one is born with a fear or attitude about money, yet you have some. Fears and attitudes - be they good, bad, or ugly - develop over time. No doubt, your upbringing is a major contributing factor. Past experiences - successes and failures - also play a critical role, as does society and your surroundings - the media, friends, family even how the government spends, creates and takes away moneys and programs are factors.

The Current Money Fiasco

Since last year, millions have felt some form of financial squeeze. For some, it was an unbelievable financial disaster that caught then totally off guard.

Thousands daily lost their jobs, their homes, their life savings - here yesterday, gone today. Poof ... it felt like it was an overnight happening.

Fat 401(k) accounts were slashed to a fraction of what they were just months earlier; homes that many counted on to yield a hefty part of their retirement seed plummeted in value; and the credit markets turned venomous. The perfect storm. Financial scandals, scams and corruption fermented everywhere. And fear ... unbelievable fear.

The Fear Factors
Understanding your money personality, your spending habits, your needs and wants and what may be hindering you from achieving your goals are critical factors in creating financial independence. Dealing with money fears that are blockers to success are a key ingredient to building assets.

The Fear of Being Broke
At the top of the list is the fear of being broke, "Will I have enough to buy the foods I want, the medications I need or be able to pay for the things I want to do when I stop working?"

Years ago, a client had asked me if I would take the time to go visit his mother. He told me that she had some investments, lived mostly off the dividends, interest and her monthly Social Security. He asked that I just check in with to see if she was getting a decent return on her portfolio.

I made the appointment and spent a pleasant two hours getting to know Martha. She was in her early sixties at the time and healthy. She believed that she was a good steward of her money. With financial data filled out, I promised to get back to her within the week with an update on several stocks and suggestions for any changes to her portfolio. As I got up to leave, she said, "What about my stash?"

She pointed the corner of her living room. All I saw was a big green, over-stuffed chair. "My stash . . . in the chair. . . and drapes."

My new client had stashed in excess of $30,000 over the years in her over stuffed green chair with matching draperies. She had lived through the Depression - never again would she, or her family, be without food if bad times hit again. It took me over a year to convince her to move her moneys to a money market fund that would earn her interest.

Did she move the entire amount? Nope, she insisted on a stash of $5,000 in the house, money that she could tap into for "whatever."

The reality is that whether you are rich, poor, or in-between, the person that you are going to have to depend the most on to keep you from the poorhouse is you and your smarts.

The Fear of Losing Money
At some point, everyone loses money. It can be from a bad investment, misplacing moneys, inflation erosion, failure to act or make a decision on your investments, making the wrong decision, losing a job or other resource of funds. It happens.

One advantage that many men have over women deals with attitude-women are more likely to be fearful of not being able to "make up" lost money; men more often believe that they can make it up/replace it the next go around. All is lost, it's part of the "game."

The Fear of Talking About Money
Upbringing is a key factor that shapes your money practices. Most adults "wish" that they had had training and guidance about money and investing as they grew up.

If you grew up in a family that openly discussed money and its many facets, you're in the minority. Not all of your friends will be on the same wave link as you are in money matters. Your awareness, and possibly non-intimidation to the topic, may actually intimidate them!

The Fear of Making Mistakes and Failing
Everyone makes mistakes. I wished I had $10 for each one I've made over the past 50 years plus. Mistakes that lead to a money loss can be personally and professionally crippling.

They happen. You get to choose-will they handicap and paralyze you? Or will you look at them as a learning and growth experience?

What you have to guard against is the reaction that the fear of failure and making mistakes can generate paralysis . . . getting stuck mentally. Making money mistakes and experiencing failures won't destroy you. Your key to resurrecting yourself is determining-

• What happened?
• What factors could you control, influence or alter?
• What factors could you not control?
• What did you learn, the pros and cons?

The Fear of Creating and Sticking to a Plan
Twenty-five percent of the American population believes that they will fund their retirement years by winning the Lottery! Fat chance.

Your best bet is to create a plan. Put it in writing for easier tracking. Financial plans are guide tools that start you on a path that will lead you to your stated money goals. They are not, though, set in granite. Times and circumstances change. So do investments and opportunities. That means that you don't create and stick it in the drawer. Your plan should be reviewed annually. It should be flexible. Life changes. You change.

The Fear of Borrowing Money
Wouldn't it be great to pay cash for everything, including your home? Few can. Sometimes, it makes sense to borrow money. But, over-borrowing and too much credit is quite common.

A credit card is used over 600 times every second of the day; over 36,000 times a minute; over 2 million times an hour; and over 52 million times a day. The average household owing in excess of $9,200 in credit card debt. What's yours?

If you are contemplating, or already have, borrowing money for a large item- a home or an education loan-increases your pay back amount by 10%. Why? Simply this-you will reduce the time your loan payoff paid by approximately one-third. That means you save big dollars and limit the time you "owe" someone.

In determining whether you should borrow or not, ask yourself if you need the item or do you want it. If you want it and can't (or aren't sure) you can pay off the amount over the designated time, don't buy it.

The Fear of Investing
When it comes to investing, there are no guarantees. The value of the initial money you invested can increase, decrease or remain stagnant in value.

Investing takes time and patience. Don't focus on what your investment is worth this week or even this month. Concentrate on the long haul-what are you saving for five or ten years from now? And when it comes to investing, invest in what you know and understand. Health care offers a huge range of possibilities.

The Fear of Not Trusting Yourself
Gender differences surface in the trust department with money and investing. Men are less inclined to stick with an advisor whose advice has gone sour and they don't abdicate financial decisions to someone else as easily as women do. Advisors can help . . . but don't discount your own experiences and intuitiveness.

So, What Are Your Fears?
Everyone has at least one. It's time to confront your deepest financial fear and get them in the open. Whether it's the fear of the soup kitchen or of making a mistake that is financially catastrophic, you can become inhibited from taking action.

Identify them. Write them down. Just the mere fact that they are on paper opens the door for you to commit and confront them head-on. Ask yourself,

• Are my fears realistic in today's environment?
• Are they relevant to what I currently do?
• Do they hinder me from moving on?
• Are they life threatening (to my spouse, partner, kids or job, friends, me)?

There will always be some type of fear. Cartoon character Pogo said it best, "I have seen the enemy and the enemy is us." By bringing up your awareness level, identifying which fears influence your money decisions, you will achieve the first level of having money smarts.

###

©2009 Judith Briles, All Rights Reserved

Judith Briles holds both an MBA and DBA and is a sought after conference speaker. Prior to her career as a full time speaker and author, she was a stockbroker with EF Hutton & Co. and headed her own financial firm. She's the author of 26 books including Money Smarts for Turbulent Times: Master Financial Success in 30 Days!, Smart Money Moves for Kids, The Dollars and Sense of Divorce, Zapping Conflict in the Health Care Workplace and Stabotage! How to Deal with the Pit Bulls, Skunks, Snakes, Scorpions & Slugs in the Health Care Workplace. Judith lives in Colorado. Her website is http://www.Briles.com and she can be reached at [mailto:JudithBriles@aol.com]JudithBriles@aol.com.

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Judith_Briles http://EzineArticles.com/?Money-Smarts-For-Turbulent-Times&id=2812572

Today on GBPUSD – Daily and H4 charts support Short trades, but...

On the Daily chart above, as anticipated, price continued its movement downward. The upward trend-line (that we’ve highlighted using the red broken line), around which price struggled for days, has been decisively broken downward. A more recent upward trend-line (that we’ve highlighted using the red solid line) is the new area price is attempting to break downward. Also, as observed yesterday, the most recent Daily swing low @ 1.6274 (which we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line) is a major support level that we are still waiting for price to break downward to boost our downward bias. In all, current price pattern seems to favor a downward move, but the discussed obstacles to this downward move should not be disregarded.

On the H4 chart above, we have a clearer view of price action around the more recent upward trend-line that we discussed earlier on the Daily chart: we could see the trend-line is already acting as a resistance area on the H4 chart as price’s attempt to break above it was rejected. The swing low @ 1.6418 (that we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line), which price broke below on Monday, has remained the most recent swing low since last week Friday. That automatically sustains our bias in favor of a downward price move. The white horizontal line @ 1.6443 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

Update on today’s GBPUSD Short Trade set-up

If you were able to identify the GBPUSD Short trade set-up and took the trade, that’s great. For unavoidable reasons, I wasn’t in the market at the time of price action. However, I’ll go ahead to give analysis of today’s bias based on higher time frame charts, and then explain the steps I would’ve taken so far in managing the Short trade.

On the Daily chart above, for days, price has been struggling around the upward trend-line: lots of indecision regarding whether to reverse upward or continue its movement downward. Currently, price has broken the previous day low downward; hence, we expect continuation of the downward move. However, the most recent Daily swing low @ 1.6274 (which we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line) is a major support level that we have to keep in mind.

On the H4 chart above, price broke the most recent swing low @ 1.6418 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. That automatically sustained our bias in favor of a downward price move. The white horizontal line @ 1.6622 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

On the Hourly chart above, price pattern was forming lower highs and lower lows; hence, drawing the Fibonacci tool using the most recent Hourly swing high @ 1.6427, and the temporary price-bottom @ 1.6339, we had potential price reversal areas around fibs. 61.8% ret. (1.6393) and 78.6% ret. (1.6408) levels. (Pls NOTE both retracement levels were supported by pivots, other fibs., and previous lows).
Initial Stop Loss was placed 2pips above the most recent Hourly swing high @ 1.6432 (broker’s spread included). Primary profit target @ 1.6317 (two pips above the fib. 127% ext.).

On The 15min chart above, with a clearer view of the Hourly price action, and based on my reward:risk ratio assessment, I would place my Limit Order in-between both fibs. 61.8% and 78.6% ret. levels – precisely @ 1.6400, which is just under a Daily pivot @ 1.6402. After the Limit Order was triggered @ 1.6400, and price reversed downward almost immediately – with the 15min engulfing-candle reversal formation at a confluence of resistance – it was a good opportunity to quickly turn the trade to a no-loss trade. With a 3-lot position, I would take profit on one lot @ 25-pip profit, and then adjust the Stop Loss for the remaining position to 12 pips above my Entry level (5 pips above the most recent 15min swing high @ 1.6407). That automatically would’ve made the trade a no-loss trade with a profit potential of 83 pips.
The next step would have been to identify an appropriate level where I could take profit on the second lot, as price has the tendency to turn upward as it moves further downward toward the price-bottom @ 1.6339.

Today on USDJPY – Daily and H4 charts support Long trades.

On the Daily chart above, we could see that price couldn’t sustain its steep downward move as it advanced toward the lower edge of the narrow channel; hence it reversed sharply to break above the upper edge of the channel – breaking above previous day’s highs in the process. Also, if we take a closer look at the Daily chart – precisely the previous two trading days’ candles (last week Thursday and Friday) – we would observe that the whole of Thursday’s price action occurred within Friday’s candle (price range), which resulted in an “engulfing-candle” formation. An engulfing candle at the end of a steep downward move such as this gives us a good probability that price is set to reverse its direction. Furthermore, Price-break above the engulfing-candle earlier today buttressed the possibility of further movement of price downward.

On the H4 chart above, price broke the most recent swing high @ 94.54 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) upward. That automatically shifted our bias in favor of an upward price move. The green horizontal line @ 93.41 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it – in the absence of any new and higher swing low – our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels – to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today’s up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

The Power of Philanthropy

Personal Note: Again, Barbara focuses on women in this article, but I still believe the basic insights would benefit every one of us.

By [http://ezinearticles.com/?expert=Barbara_Stanny]Barbara Stanny

"It's more difficult to give away money that it is to earn it in the first place." ~Andrew Carnegie

While his premise is arguable, Andrew Carnegie's point is indisputable. He understood the power of planned giving. Tax exempt organizations are the fastest growing sector in the United States. Today there are almost 2 million nonprofit organizations, and 50,000 new ones are born each year. The competition for our donations is intense. Yet most of us give more thought to buying a pair of shoes than to our philanthropy.

Philanthropy is usually the least thought out, most disorganized part of our financial activities. We know charitable contributions save us taxes. Whatever we give away is that much less we give to the IRS. But the question we rarely ask is: How can I maximize not only my tax benefits but the power that philanthropy gives me?

Philanthropy is a very powerful tool. Through thoughtfully planned giving, you can:

• Change the world in areas you feel strongest about
• Pass on your wisdom and values to your children and those you love
• Leave your imprint on the world, a lasting legacy that will affect your community for generations to come

The more thought and planning you give to your charitable donations, the more...so to speak...bang you get from your buck-financially, socially, emotionally. This is especially important for women. Why? Call it the Bake Sale mentality.

Women give more often than men, but they give in much smaller amounts to twice as many organizations. Giving small amounts willy nilly significantly erodes the satisfaction we could derive from giving, while it dilutes the impact we could have on the world.

Studies reveal how men and women give differently.

The top three reasons men give:
1. have a building named after them
2. pressure from office or peers
3. get a seat on a board of directors

The top three reasons women give:
1. make a difference
2. pass on family tradition
3. give back to community

Philanthropy is a learned skill. None of us were born with the gene, though our family's influence is very important.

Principles of Powerful Philanthropy

1. Educate yourself financially. The number one reason women don't give more is lack of knowledge. No matter how much money a woman has, if she's afraid, insecure, and/or ignorant around money, she'll be restrained in her giving . A Prudential study shows that while 73% of women believe passing money to children and causes is important, only 14% of them have conducted detailed financial planning to ensure an effective wealth transfer.

2.Get your financial house in order. Review your finances regularly with your spouse. Smart money management follows four rules:

a. Spend less
b. Save more
c. Invest wisely
d. Give generously

These rules must be followed in this order. Most women have the giving generously down pat, but giving without following the first three rules is an act of self sabotage. Not only do you jeopardize your future security, but you diminish the impact you can make with your money.

3. See yourself as a philanthropist in your own right. This is important. Too many women think it's their husband's money, so giving it away is their husband's responsibility. But women often outlive their spouses and may ultimately be in charge of the family estate. Another reason women don't engage in planned giving is because, if they're not a Carnegie or Rockefeller, they don't think they have enough to worry about. But in my experience, the most powerful philanthropists are not the ones with the highest net worth. They're the ones who are financially educated, secure and passionate about a cause.

4. Give serious thought to the legacy you want to leave. I once saw a poster that posed this question: Will it matter that I was? Ask yourself: How do I want people to remember me? What changes would I like to see in the world. What do I value most? Does my giving reflect my values?

5. Work with professionals. Figuring out how much is possible and advantageous to give is a complex issue. Don't try to do this in a vacuum; it should be a team effort. Find a reputable estate planner, attorney, financial advisor or accountant. Studies show, however, nine out of ten people don't mention charities in their will. So if a professional you consult doesn't bring it up, be sure it's on your agenda.

6. Make it a family affair. Use philanthropy as a way to teach kids about values, money management and life goals.

The power of philanthropy comes from thoughtful focused giving in areas you feel passionate about. When enough women come together, give strategically in areas we feel passionate about, we'll have the means to literally change the world, heal this planet. And it all starts with each one of us.

Barbara Stanny, the leading authority on women and money-is on a mission-to revolutionize women's relationship with money. As a bestselling author, sought after speaker, workshop facilitator, money & wealth coach, and coach trainer, Barbara teaches women to earn the money they deserve, build the wealth they desire, and step fully into their power! http://www.barbarastanny.com

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Barbara_Stanny http://EzineArticles.com/?The-Power-of-Philanthropy&id=2537896

Additional Update on today’s USDJPY Short Trade set-up

After I exited the first lot @ 19-pip profit, price moved further downward. With that, I took the next step to identify an appropriate level where I could take profit on the second lot, as price has the tendency to turn upward as it moves further downward toward the price-bottom @ 93.46. Besides, there was already a waving +ve MACD Divergence on the Hourly chart: a possibility of a major price move upward (a major move from a day-trade perspective) that might trigger the Stop Loss.

Consequently, on the 15min chart above, I drew a new Fibonacci tool in the opposite direction to determine a support level that might prevent further movement downward. I identified the fib. 61.8% ret. level @ 93.69, which was supported by Daily and Weekly pivots. Afterward, I waited to observe price reaction around the level. With a “doji” candle and a bullish candle, I concluded it was ok to exit my second lot @ 24-pip profit. With two lots taken, the trade automatically turned to a profitable trade – regardless of price movement.
My exit for the last lot is @ 93.24 (the primary profit target @ fib. 127% ext. level). Further Stop Loss adjustments would be based on new Hourly swing highs.

P.S.:
I lost a GBPUSD Short trade. Fortunately, I had the opportunity to cut my loss; however, with better trade-management, it would’ve been a no loss trade.

Update on today’s USDJPY Short Trade set-up

If you were able to identify the USDJPY Short trade set-up and took the trade, that’s great. I took it, and, currently, I’m still in it. I’ll give analysis of today’s bias based on higher time frame charts, and then explain the steps I’ve taken so far in managing the Short trade.

On the Daily chart above, similar to what we observed on Wednesday, the USDJPY pair has been in a steep downtrend for more than a week. Previous days’ lows have been broken southward. Also, if we take a closer look at the Daily chart – precisely the previous two days’ candles – we would observe that the whole of yesterday’s price action occurred within Wednesday’s candle (price range), which resulted in an “inside-candle” formation. Price-break below the inside-candle earlier today signified the possibility of further movement of price downward. In addition, studying the narrow downward channel, price seems to have room to move further downward – toward the lower edge of the channel. These price actions are good signs supporting a bias for downward price movement.

On the H4 chart above, price broke the most recent swing low – also the previous day low @ 93.84 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. That automatically sustained our bias in favor of a downward price move. The white horizontal line @ 94.54 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.
Pls NOTE: The H4 chart also gives us a clearer view of price action within the downward channel discussed on the Daily chart.

On the Hourly chart above, price pattern was forming lower highs and lower lows; hence, I drew the Fibonacci tool using the most recent Hourly swing high @ 94.28, and the temporary price-bottom @ 93.46, and then identified an area around the fib. 61.8% ret. level as a potential price reversal area to place my Limit Order (Pls NOTE the 61.8% ret. level was supported by pivots, other fibs., and previous lows).
Initial Stop Loss was placed 2pips above the most recent Hourly swing high @ 94.33 (broker’s spread included). Primary profit target @ 93.24 (two pips above the fib. 127% ext.).

On The 15min chart above, after the Limit Order was triggered @ 94.01 (exactly on a Daily pivot level), price reversed downward almost immediately. Hence, I had a good opportunity to quickly turn the trade to a no-loss trade. With a 3-lot position, I took profit on one lot @ 19-pip profit, then, adjusted the Stop Loss for the remaining position to 9 pips above my Entry level, which was 5 pips above the most recent 15min swing high. That automatically made the trade a no-loss trade with a profit potential of 75 pips.

Today on USDCHF – Daily and H4 charts support Short trades, but…

On the Daily chart above, as a result of the drastic loss dollar experienced on all the major pairs yesterday, on the USDCHF Daily chart, we would observe that price has broken the most recent Daily swing low @ 1.0668 (which we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line) downward. Also we would notice than price is currently in a lower high, lower low formation. These are good signs supporting a bias for downward price movement. However, there is a very major support area around the 1.0600 level, this support area has remained a critical level since May 2008 (please refer to your Weekly and Monthly charts); hence, we should be very careful as the bears might be contending with some fierce bulls around this level.

On the H4 chart above, price broke the most recent swing low @ 1.0725 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. This automatically shifts our bias in favor of a downward price move. The white horizontal line @ 1.0779 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact. Please, as you seek opportunities to go Short, bear in mind the critical support area around the 1.0600 level. As a conservative trader, you may want to wait for a clean break.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

Update on today’s GBPUSD Short Trade set-up

In light of what is currently happening with the majors, we would know that virtually any “buy-dollar” trade set-up, from a day-trade perspective, is doomed.

I took a Short GBPUSD trade, but was fortunate to manage the trade well enough to close at break-even (2pip profit). Maybe explaining what I did might offer a few insights.

On the Hourly chart above, I identified a nice confluence of resistance levels around fib. 61.8% ret. @ 1.6489. I also noticed a very distinct most recent Hourly swing low @ 1.6509, which was closer to the fib. 78.6% @ 1.6520 (I apologize for not highlighting it with a horizontal line). I decided to place my Limit Order around the most recent Hourly swing low @ 1.6509 – mainly to enjoy a high reward:risk while trying as much as possible not to miss out of any potential beautiful trade.

On the 15min chart above, as you would observe, price moved upward and met resistance almost at the same level of the most recent Hourly swing low @ 1.6509. Automatically, my Limit Order was filled. As priced instantly reversed downward, I saw an opportunity to quickly turn the trade to a no-loss trade.

In the absence of a well formed reversal candle formation on the 15min chart, I waited for the close of the second bearish 15min candle, and concluded that if there would be any major downward price move, the two 15min bearish candles (that formed around major resistance levels) were strong enough to initiate the downward move. Hence, with a two-lot position, I closed half of my position @ 22pip profits; then moved my Stop Loss to 20 pips above my entry level, which was 15pips above the 15min candles (that included my broker’s spread). That automatically made the trade a no-loss trade with a “windfall” profit potential of 186pips.

Alas, today wasn’t my lucky day.

Update on today’s USDCHF Short Trade set-up

Pls NOTE: Based on earlier analysis of the USDJPY pair today, a couple of Short trade set-ups occurred. If you used the fib 50% ret. levels both times, you would have closed the first in profit, and the second would comfortably be in your favor by now: The first set-up had its 50% level @ 94.40 with primary profit target @ 93.95; the second set-up (with the fib drawn from the same Hourly swing high, but with different price-bottoms) had its 50% level @ 94.21 with primary profit target @ 93.47. As you’re probably aware, personally, I go for 61.8% ret. – and preferably, 78.6% ret. because of my love for high reward:risk trade. So, I missed both trades.

If you were able to identify the USDCHF Short trade set-up and took the trade, that’s great.

On the Hourly chart above, we could notice the sharp upward retracement from where price initially bottomed @ 1.0721 to the exact level of fib. 61.8% ret. @ 1.0757. If your Limit Order wasn’t placed around the fib. 50% ret. level @ 1.0750, or a few pips below 61.8% level, you would have missed the trade. I missed it by a whisker. It could be very frustrating.
As we could see, as price sharply retraced upward, with almost the same momentum, it reversed downward all the way to hit the primary profit target @ 1.0706 (the fib. 127% ext.); then continued its “mad” rush further downward to hit the secondary target @ 1.0686 (the fib. 161.8% ext.).

The 15min chart above, gives us a much clearer view of the Hourly price action.

P.S.:
This trade was fully supported by the H4 chart price action.

Today on USDJPY – Daily and H4 charts support Short trades, but…

On the Daily chart above, we would observe the USDJPY pair has been in a steep downtrend for more than a week. Recent Daily swing low has been broken southward. However, the current price formation isn’t too clear – from my perspective: price seems to be in a tight downward channel, and with yesterday’s candle formation giving us a weak sign that the bears are still somewhat in charge, our bias is still in favor of a continuous downward price movement. To buttress our bearish bias, price has broken the previous day low @ 94.19 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. Let’s expect price to move further downward toward the lower edge of the downward channel. The only “but” today is simply based on the not-too-clear current price formation.

On the H4 chart above, price broke the most recent swing low – also the previous day low @ 94.19 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. That automatically sustained our bias in favor of a downward price move. The white horizontal line @ 95.28 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

P.S.:
As I’m about posting this analysis, a Short USDJPY trade set-up seems to be forming on the Hourly chart with initial Stop Loss @ 94.71; and Primary Profit Target @ 93.96. If you’re able to identify a strong confluence of resistance, please consider taking the trade.
However, please remember to keep your risk per trade low: We MUST NEVER assume we KNOW where price is going next!
Also, always keep in mind any major news releases. Be wary of possible price volatility during these periods.

How to Respect Money

Personal Note: Barbara is a money & wealth coach with primary focus on women, but I believe this article is suitable for everybody. And, in addition to her reference to the stock market, the currency market, which is my primary investment vehicle, is very viable.


By [http://ezinearticles.com/?expert=Barbara_Stanny]Barbara Stanny

There's a big difference between making a good living and enjoying a good life. You demonstrate respect and appreciation for money the same way you would anything else of value in your life, be it an heirloom rug, an expensive hand tool, a close friend, or cash in hand. If you want it to last, you've got to take care of it. Throw it around carelessly or ignore it completely and guess what's going to happen?

Remember, your goal is not just to put a fatter paycheck in your pocket. You want to achieve financial independence, which means making a good living and enjoying a good life, where money enhances your well-being, not exacerbates your stress. Financial independence does not come from what you earn. It comes from what you do with what you have. No matter how sizable your salary, the money will slip through your fingers if you bypass this step.

Yet this step is frequently neglected, even by the best and the brightest. It was the biggest surprise when interviewing six-figure women. With earnings that ranged anywhere from $100,000 to $7 million, the whopping majority, as confident as they were professionally, were surprisingly insecure financially. They were so busy making money they didn't bother to take care of it. The people with the highest net worth were not necessarily the ones who made the most money. They were the ones who took the best care of their money.

Rampant, unintentional spending is often the culprit. Like Pavlov's dog salivating when it hears the dinner bell, as soon as people boost their earnings, 'Ka-ching,' they bump up their spending, then wonder where those extra bucks went.

THE CHOICE IS YOURS
Making conscious, deliberate choices about what you do with your money is precisely what this step is all about. There are only four choices you need to make to fully respect and appreciate money. These four choices are called the Four Rules of Money.

1. Spend Less (Only buy what you can easily afford)
2. Save More (Pay yourself first)
3. Invest Wisely (Put money in assets that grow in value over time.)
4. Give Generously (Use your money to make a difference )

Most of us have the giving generously part down pat. But unless you handle the first three, giving can become an act of self-sabotage. Not only do you jeopardize your future security, but you diminish the impact you can have with your money.

The success of this step rests in following the Four Rules in the order they're listed. That means, before anything else, don't spend money you don't have. And then make darn sure there's something left over for savings. Believe me, it's next to impossible to overcome underearning if you're still whipping out credit cards while bills go unpaid. Even if your debts aren't completely paid off, do not - I repeat DO NOT - add to them. Not only does debt drain your energy, but it lulls you into a false sense of sufficiency.

"If you use debt to meet your needs, you'll never be free of underearning," agrees Jerold Mundis, author of Earn What You Deserve. "Debt is the cruelest form of poverty. It gives you the illusion that you have far more than you do."

THE BIG MUST FOR OVERCOMING UNDEREARNING: STOP DEBTING NOW!
Debt SUCKS. It weighs you down. It drains your energy, your resources, your peace of mind, and your quality of life. Until you get rid of your credit cards - tear them up, hide them from sight, or freeze them in ice in a tin can - and start paying down your bills, you'll have a very tough time reaching the next level of your life that you aspire to.

BEWARE OF GOING TO EXTREMES
Careless spending or continuing to debt is like boarding a train traveling the wrong way. You'll never get where you want to go. At the same time, you do not want to head in the reverse direction-

DEPRIVATION - where your emotional and/or physical needs are not being met. Important message to all underearners: Spending less does not mean misery and hardship.Deprivation is endemic to underearning, being both a symptom and a source of the condition itself. Doing this step does not require either scarcity-thinking or severe self-denial. But it does require a certain amount of delayed gratification. There is a difference. Cutting back is not the same as cutting out completely. And financial prudence does not imply forsaking necessities, or even some pleasures. The distinction is critical. Discernment is the key. Cut back by taking little bits out of each category. Otherwise, budgeting becomes like crash dieting. Deprivation creates a hunger that will drive you right back to the stores on a buying binge.

MAKE YOUR MONEY WORK FOR YOU!
But budgeting is only the beginning. You've got to be willing to take some risks in order to make a little extra. In truth, our biggest financial risk is not market volatility. Our biggest risk is to do nothing at all. Sure, the market's ups and downs are scary. But you can significantly cut your losses with due diligence, a long-term approach, and adequate diversification. On the other hand, if all your cash is sitting in the bank - or worse, under your mattress-you don't need a crystal ball to predict your future. Your purchasing power will shrink like a bunch of steamed spinach. Unless a portion of your savings is in assets that grow faster than inflation and taxes eat it away, your greatest danger is that you'll outlive your money.

For instance, say you've just gotten a $1000 bonus. You're smart enough to save it, so you put it in the bank, where the return is guaranteed and it earns about two percent. In about 20 years, your original investment, adjusted for inflation, will be worth a grand total of $500 (assuming inflation doesn't rise above three percent.)

But if instead you put that $1000 in a stock mutual fund earning ten percent and never add one cent to it, in 20 years you'd be looking at over $6,000. Big difference.

What if you don't have $1000 lying around? Here's the truth: You don't need a lot of money to create wealth, not when you consistently set aside small amounts over a period of time. Mere pocket change adds up surprisingly fast with the magic of compounding (where you're earning interest on your earnings as well as on your original investment). For example, if every day you aside 50 cents to put into a mutual fund earning eight percent (a reasonable return today), in 20 years, you'll have $10,000.

THE MONEY APPRECIATION GUIDE
Check the statements which are true for you.
* I am clear on my financial goals.
* I know my net worth
* I have no credit card debt.
* I have enough savings to live on for three to six months.
* I have money invested in a retirement account.
* I have investments outside a retirement account.
* I understand the investments I own.
* I will have enough money to live on in retirement.
* I have a will.
* I know where all my financial documents and records are.

This is what respect and appreciation of money looks like. Pay special attention to the statements you did not check - that's the work you need to do next.

Barbara Stanny, the leading authority on women and money-is on a mission-to revolutionize women's relationship with money. As a bestselling author, sought after speaker, workshop facilitator, money & wealth coach, and coach trainer, Barbara teaches women to earn the money they deserve, build the wealth they desire, and step fully into their power! http://www.barbarastanny.com

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Barbara_Stanny http://EzineArticles.com/?How-to-Respect-Money&id=2537948

Today on GBPUSD – Daily and H4 charts support Short trades.

On the Daily chart above, as we observed yesterday, a couple of more recent price actions – in addition to previous ones that we’ve been discussing for over a week – are sustaining our bias in favor a continuing downward price movement: price retracement upward that was halted around the upward trend-line, which acted as a resistance area; and price-break below a former support level – the most recent Daily swing low @ 1.6389 (which we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line). Note that this previous support @ 1.6389 is currently acting as a resistance level. These signs are still good enough to sustain our bias for a downward price move – from a day-trade perspective.

On the H4 chart above, yesterday, price broke the most recent swing low @ 1.6483 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. That price action shifted – and has sustained – our bias in favor of a downward price move. The white horizontal line @ 1.6607 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

Short Trade set-up on GBPUSD Hourly chart.

Earlier today, we concluded today’s bias is to go Short.

The Hourly chart above is currently forming a tradable pattern. Price seems to have bottomed temporarily @ 1.6274. Hence, we expect price to retrace to the area between 1.6409 and 1.6545 (which is the area between the 50% and 100% fib. retracement levels – drawn from the most recent Hourly swing high to the current price-bottom). Let’s seek to sell around this area. If price exceeds the 1.6545 level upward, our bearish bias is no more valid and we enter a no-trading zone. Our primary profit target is @ 1.6201 (the 127% fib. ext.).

Also, if price breaks below 1.6274 (current price-bottom) before retracing to the sell-area, we’ll have to redraw our Fibonacci tools using a new bottom & the most recent Hourly swing high to determine new potential areas to sell.

The 15min. chart above gives us a clearer view of the Hourly price action and the potential areas to sell (please note it’s advisable to set a Limit order ahead of time as price could move up to these levels and reverse sharply in our favor).
This chart is rather cluttered but if we look closely, there are a number of potential reversal levels available. You choose your preferred level based on your personality.

fib 50% ret. @ 1.6409;
fib 61.8% ret. @ 1.6441;
fib 78.6% ret. @ 1.6486.

Initial Stop Loss @ 1.6547; primary Profit target @ 1.6201 (Please remember to factor in your broker’s pip-spread).

Please note that all these Fibonacci (fib.) levels have other pivots, overlapping fibs or previous highs/lows supporting them (they are the cause of this cluttered chart). As such, price could reverse at any of the points. The issue here is that the higher the fib level you choose to sell from, the smaller the pips you’ll risk and the more your pip-profit; BUT, also the more the likelihood of you missing the trade as price might not retrace that high before moving back downward.
You need your own discretion here.

Please keep your risk low. Don’t risk more than 2% of your capital. Personally, I risk about 0.5% per trade; and each trade has a potential profit target of 1% or more – based on my exit levels.
We MUST NEVER assume we KNOW where price is going next!

P.S.:
Similar Short trade and Long trade set-ups are forming on the EURUSD and USDCHF pairs respectively.
Also, always keep in mind any major news releases. Be wary of possible price volatility during these periods.

Today on GBPUSD – The Story continues: Daily and H4 charts support Short trades.

Pls NOTE: On the Weekly chart (please refer to Monday, Aug. 10 analysis), the reversal candle that formed around a strong resistance level the penultimate week is still doing a very good job of sustaining our bias for a downward price move.

On the Daily chart above, continuing from where we stopped our analyses early last week; after price broke below the upward trend-line, and MACD crossed below its Signal Line to validate the –ve MACD divergence (that we’ve identified using the red dashed lines on the upper and lower windows of the trading platform), price seems ready to continue its journey southward – as envisaged. The current major price actions confirming the continuation of this downward bias are: First, we would notice price retracement upward was halted around the upward trend-line, which now acts as a resistance area. Second, price has broken the most recent Daily swing low @ 1.6389 (which we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line) downward. These signs are simply too strong to ignore: we now have a strong bias to seek Short trade set-ups on the Hourly chart – with the H4 chart support. Except we really know what we’re doing, from a day-trade perspective, it’s very risky to be taking a counter trend trade in an environment as this.

On the H4 chart above, price has broken the most recent swing low @ 1.6483 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. That automatically signaled the resumption of our bias in favor of a major downward price move. The white horizontal line @ 1.6607 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

Best Ways to Make Serious Money Starting With a Small Investment

Personal Note: This is a lovely article from Alex. However, I don’t employ his trading strategies: I don't know about them. I’m also a bit wary of the 20% monthly ROI example he used. Not that it’s impossible, but I believe we are able to maintain our discipline and patience much better when we keep each step toward our big goals not too aggressive. But, as I've said, I like the primary theme of the article.

Best Ways to Make Serious Money Starting With a Small Investment
By [http://ezinearticles.com/?expert=Alex_Cadens]Alex Cadens

Quite often people think that investing is not a viable option for them because of a common misconception that investing is only worth it if you have a considerable amount of capital. I was one of those people, as I thought that investing, making money and a living out of my investment, would require for to have 500K in my bank.

However, I realized that in order to reach the goal of making money and a living out of my money it was not necessary to wait 30 years breaking my neck until I am 65 and I have reached the 500K mark. Indeed, I learned that investing and making a lot of money at it was not about how much capital you have (although it is obvious that more is better), but more about how consistent and effective you are at managing your risk.

This is really the key, and the reason why we agree to put our money in the hands of large institutions, because we presume that they are better fit to manage the risk for us than we are, and this may be right to some extent, but the fact of the matter is that you can also do a great job at it without the need for you to be an expert thus getting far better returns on your investment.

Nonetheless, it is not about jumping into the markets to see if you get lucky, it is about being prepared, because remember, you are not an expert, but you sure need to perform like one. The question is, how?

Simple, you have to learn how to manage your investment yourself, and this is something you can easily achieve by turning to good educational resources and reliable trading tools, both of which will provide you with the ideal mix of know-how and accurate real time analysis to make your investment so profitable that you will need only a small amount of money to start making a lot of it.

Consider for a moment that if you achieve a 20% monthly return on your investment, an initial investment of $200 could turn into $13,249.47 after only 24 months. So you see, you can make serious money with just a little of it and without being reckless; all you will need to make serious money with your investment is know-how and/or a solid investing toolbox, and of course time, which is why starting sooner is key.

Therefore, make sure you learn more about the best resources and technology designed and proven to help you become a successful investor at: [http://www.specialonlinebusinessreviewauthority.com/best-forex-trade-systems.html]http://www.specialonlinebusinessreviewauthority.com.

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Alex_Cadens http://EzineArticles.com/?Best-Ways-to-Make-Serious-Money-Starting-With-a-Small-Investment&id=2751487

Today on EURUSD – Daily and H4 charts support Long trades, but…

On the Daily chart above, the reversal candle pattern (engulfing candle), observed yesterday around the lower border of a rising wedge chart formation, is still doing a good job of holding our bias in favor of an upward price move. However, price is currently below the previous day high @ 1.4326 (that we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line), which, if we look closely toward the left side of the chart, happens to be around a previous swing high – not an observation we should ignore. These conflicting signs are only warning us to be very careful until the coast is clear.

On the H4 chart above, price broke a recent (not the most recent) swing high @ 1.4246 (which we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line) a while ago. However, a new swing high – coincidentally the previous day high @ 1.4326 (which we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line) has formed, and price is yet to break above it. While price break above the 1.4246 level strengthens our bias in favor of a continuous upward price move, the new swing high (and previous day high) @ 1.4326 is a major resistance level that we would like to see price break upward. The green horizontal line @ 1.4121 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it – in the absence of any new and higher swing low – our bullish or upward bias remains intact.
In all, we are cautiously in favor of an upward price movement today.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels – to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today’s up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

Update on today’s EURUSD Long Trade set-up

Based on our earlier analysis today, the EURUSD presented a Long trade opportunity about a couple of hours ago. I’m currently not in the trade as I was targeting the fib. 78.6% ret. @ 1.4260. If you set your Limit Order around fib 61.8% ret. @ 1.4274, you would, at the moment, be in the profit.
Please manage your trade properly.

Today on EURUSD – Daily and H4 charts support Long trades.

On the Daily chart above, we could notice a reversal candle pattern (engulfing candle) around the lower border of a rising wedge chart formation. Also, price has broken above the previous day high @ 1.4246 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line). These are good signs supporting the possibility of a continuous price movement upward. The upper edge of the rising wedge is about 200 pips above the current price level; hence, another complementary sign that price has a good chance of moving further upward.

On the H4 chart above, price has broken the most recent swing high @ 1.4246 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) upward. This automatically shifts our bias in favor of an upward price move. The green horizontal line @ 1.4121 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it – in the absence of any new and higher swing low – our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels – to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today’s up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

Update on GBPUSD Short Trade set-up

Based on previous days’ analyses, The GBPUSD presented a Short trade opportunity earlier today. I entered a Short position. While the trade is currently on, I’ll like to give an update on the higher time frames analyses, and also explain the few steps I’ve taken so far in managing the Short trade:

On the Daily chart above, price, eventually, broke the support level @ 1.6430 (which we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line) downward. Also, we now have a valid negative MACD Divergence (which we’ve identified using the red dashed lines on the upper and lower windows of the trading platform) as MACD closed below its Signal Line yesterday. With these actions, we should expect a possible sustained downtrend that might last for days, weeks, or longer – suitable for longer term traders.

On the H4 chart above, price recently broke the most recent swing low @ 1.6430 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line). This break helped to sustain our bias for a downward price movement. The white horizontal line @ 1.6514 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

On the Hourly chart above, price formed a tradable pattern of lower highs and lower lows with the most recent Hourly swing high @ 1.6499. Price temporarily bottomed @ 1.6389. However, I observed a waving +ve MACD Div. (NOTE: not yet valid) that signaled the possibility of an imminent upward price movement. The signal was a warning to manage the trade conservatively.

On the M5 chart above, we have a clearer view of the Hourly price action. With strong confluences of resistance levels around the fib. 61.8% ret. level @ 1.6457, and the fib. 78.6% ret. level @ 1.6475. I decided to place a Limit Order between both levels (so as to enjoy a better reward:risk while taking precaution against being too far away from the first potential reversal level).

Price happened to reach the "in-between" level exactly, and reversed favorably (it doesn’t always happen that way). As price triggered the Limit Order and reversed almost instantly, and bearing in mind the Hourly waving +ve MACD Divergence and the BOE Inflation Report about to be released, it was a great opportunity to quickly turn the trade to a NO-LOSS trade: As price moved further downward by over 10 pips, with a bearish reversal candle about to form on the 15min chart (Pls NOTE it’s better to wait till it’s formed), I exited half of my position, and subsequently moved my Stop Loss a couple of pips above the reversal candle, which was less than 10 pips away from my Entry Level.

Currently, as I’m writing this note, I’ve been stopped out with a few pips in profit. I took a very conservative trade.

You could’ve have managed this trade in a completely different way. You could have made more profit, lost, or even still be in the trade as price is yet to move anywhere close to the most recent Hourly swing high which was the initial Stop Loss level.

Today on GBPUSD – Daily and H4 charts support Short trades, but…

Pls NOTE: On the Weekly chart (please refer to yesterday’s analysis), the reversal candle that formed around a strong resistance level is still doing a good job of sustaining our bias for a downward price move.

On the Daily chart above, continuing from where we stopped our analysis yesterday, as envisaged, price travelled down to the demand or upward trend line, which is currently doing a nice job of holding the bears. Although, price seems set to continue its bearish move, the previous day low @ 1.6430 (which we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line) is a support level we would like to see price break downward for a stronger SELL signal. The Waving negative MACD Divergence (that we’ve identified using the red dashed lines on the upper and lower windows of the trading platform), which we also discussed yesterday, is still intact. MACD has crossed below its Signal Line. It becomes a valid -ve MACD Div. if it closes below its Signal Line by the end of today. If that happens – with the current situation on the Weekly chart – we should be fully prepared for a possible sustained downtrend that might last for days, weeks, or longer.

On the H4 chart above, yesterday, price broke, at that time, the most recent swing low @ 1.6649 (which we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line) downward. That automatically shifted our bias in favor of a downward price move. To strengthen the argument for a continuing downward move, the H4 chart gives us a clearer view of price action around the demand trend line that we discussed on the Daily chart: as seen on the H4 chart, the demand trend line seems to have turned to a resistance level preventing price reversal upward.
However, as we also noted on the Daily chart, the previous day low – that is also seen on the H4 chart as the most recent swing low @ 1.6430 (which we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line) is a support level we would like to see price break downward for a stronger SELL signal. The white horizontal line @ 1.6717 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.