Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Today on GBPUSD - Daily and H4 charts support Long trades, but…

On the Daily chart above, we would observe that the GBPUSD is in a downtrend; however, from a day-trade perspective, we seem to have an opportunity to Long the pair: Yesterday, price completed a reversal candle pattern at the lower edge of the downward or bearish channel, and earlier today, price broke above the previous day high @ 1.5988. These signs suggest we are in a bullish retracement in a longer term downtrend. We have a critical resistance level – the most recent Daily swing low @ 1.6132 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line). The 1.6132 level might halt the bullish retracement. Another resistance area that is currently some pips above the 1.6132 level is a downward trend-line (red solid line). These resistance areas are very critical, especially because we are in downtrend – supported by higher time frame charts. Again, from a day-trade perspective, we could still go with the bulls, but with extreme caution when managing our trades.

On the H4 chart above, price has broken the most recent swing high @ 1.5988 (which we've highlighted using the lower blue broken line) upward. That shifts our bias in favor of an upward price move. The green horizontal line @ 1.5823 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact.
Please NOTE: Let’s keep in mind that we are in a longer term downtrend. The critical resistance levels that we discussed on the Daily chart are shown on the H4 chart to have a clearer observation regarding their proximity to price action: we’re about 60 pips to the most recent Daily swing low @ 1.6132 (which we've highlighted using the upper blue broken line), and still quite a distance from the downward trend-line. We would prefer to see price break above the 1.6132 level, to be more convinced of enough room for further bullish retracement toward the downward trend-line.

However, we still need our Hourly charts - using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels - to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today's up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

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