Today on GBPUSD – Are the Bears Determined to Maintain their Hold?

On the Daily chart above – in agreement with the Weekly and Monthly charts – the bears are currently showing signs of recovery as price reversed on its way toward the upper edge of the symmetrical triangle to retest the triangle’s lower edge. However, the triangle’s lower edge – forming a support-confluence with the Daily chart most recent swing low @ 1.6132 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line) – remains a critical level that the bears must breach decisively to prove their strength. Early price action today shows price has travelled a considerable range, and there’s the possibility we would experience relatively low activity afterward; hence we might not be having an opportunity for a suitable setup for today. However, high or low activity wouldn’t be a determining factor regarding our bias. While, our bias – with the support of higher time frame charts – remains bearish, price is currently around the support-confluence that we discussed earlier, consequently, an upward retracement is very possible

On the H4 chart above, price has broken the most recent swing low @ 1.6328 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. That price action automatically shifted our bias in favor of a downward price move. Again, let’s be very conscious of the fact that price is around a support-confluence. The white horizontal line @ 1.6468 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.