Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Today on USDJPY - Daily and H4 charts support Long trades, but...

On the Daily chart above, as discussed yesterday, price is in a strong down trend: price pattern is currently forming lower highs and lower lows. However, from a day-trade perspective, we seem to have an opportunity to temporarily support the dollar against the yen: the potential support area - the lower edge of the downward channel - that was identified yesterday, proved to be strong enough to, at least, halt price's downward movement for more than 24 hours. In addition, Friday's low, which we also discussed yesterday, couldn't be breached. Now, by the end of yesterday, a reversal candle formation - a quasi inside candle - appeared at the lower edge of the downward channel; and then, price recently broke above the previous day high. These current price actions are signaling the opportunity, from a day-trade perspective, to go Long in a possible upward price retracement that, though might be short-lived, has the potential of traveling further north toward the upper edge of the downward channel. This upper edge might likely turn out to be a strong resistance area as it creates a resistance-confluence with a previous support level - the most recent Weekly swing low @ 91.71 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line on the Daily chart), which should now act as a very strong resistance level. I believe it's safe to seek a Long trade set-up based on our H4 and Hourly charts parameters. But, let's not forget we're in a major down-trend.

On the H4 chart above, price has broken the most recent swing high @ 91.12 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line) upward. That shifts our bias in favor of an upward price move. The green horizontal line @ 90.19 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact. But, again, let's not forget we're in a major down-trend.

However, we still need our Hourly charts - using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels - to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today's up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

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