Today on USDJPY – Daily and H4 charts support Long trades.

On the Daily chart above, price recently broke the most recent swing high @ 95.37 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) upward. This signals the possibility of further price movement upward. As we could see, price is within a downward channel – which is also visible on the Weekly chart – hence, let’s be wary of a downside pressure as price moves further upward toward the upper edge of the channel. There’s roughly a 100-pip space between current price position and the channel’s upper edge; I believe that, from a day-trade perspective, it’s still relatively safe to seek an Hourly Long trade set-up – supported by the H4 chart.

On the H4 chart above, price has broken the most recent swing high @ 95.35 (which we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line) upward. A resistance level – the previous day high @ 95.86 (which we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line) is a level we might like to keep in mind, and probably want broken. In all, from a day-trade perspective, the H4 chart is supporting a Long trade. The green horizontal line @ 94.00 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it – in the absence of any new and higher swing low – our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels – to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today’s up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

Today on EURUSD – Daily and H4 charts support Short trades.

On the Daily chart above, yesterday, the dollar continued its broad rally. Consequently, on EURUSD, price broke and closed below a strong support level – the most recent Daily swing low @ 1.4118 (which we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line). Also, though price is still within an upward channel, there seems to be room for further movement downward toward the 1.3950 area. These price actions support a bearish or downward bias.

On the H4 chart above, price has broken the most recent swing low @ 1.4130 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. From a day-trade perspective, this is a good sign supporting a Short trade. The white horizontal line @ 1.4194 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows; and note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

Short Trade set-up on GBPUSD Hourly chart.

Earlier today, we concluded today’s bias is to go short.

The Hourly chart above is currently forming a tradable pattern. Price seems to have bottomed temporarily @ 1.6345. Hence, we expect price to retrace to the area between 1.6406 and 1.6467 (which is the area between the 50% and 100% fib. retracement levels – drawn from the most recent hourly swing high to the current price-bottom). Let’s seek to sell around this area. If price exceeds the 1.6467 level upward, our bearish bias is no more valid and we enter a no-trading zone. Our primary profit target is @ 1.6312 (the 127% fib. ext.).

Also, if price breaks below 1.6345 (current price-bottom) before retracing to the sell-area, we’ll have to redraw our Fibonacci tools using a new bottom & the most recent hourly swing high to determine new potential areas to sell.

The 15min. chart above gives us a clearer view of the hourly price action and the potential areas to sell (please note it’s advisable to set a Limit Order ahead of time as price could move up to these levels and reverse sharply in our favor).
This chart is rather cluttered but if we look closely, there are a number of potential reversal levels available. You choose your preferred level based on your personality.

fib 50% ret. @ 1.6406;
fib 61.8% ret. @ 1.6421;
fib 78.6% ret. @ 1.6441.

(Personally, the 50% and 61.8% ret. levels are weak compared to the 78.6% ret. level as the confluences at both levels are not as strong as that of 78.6% - I might set my Limit Order just below the pivot @ 1.6437, which is just a few pips from fib 78.6%)

Initial Stop Loss @ 1.6469; primary Profit target @ 1.6312 (Please remember to factor in your broker’s pip-spread).

Please note that all these Fibonacci (fib.) levels have other pivots, overlapping fibs or previous highs/lows supporting them (they are the cause of this cluttered chart). As such, price could reverse at any of the points. The issue here is that the higher the fib level you choose to sell from, the smaller the pips you’ll risk and the more your pip-profit; BUT, also the more the likelihood of you missing the trade as price might not retrace that high before moving back downward.
You need your own discretion here.

Please keep your risk low. Don’t risk more than 2% of your capital. Personally, I risk about 0.5% per trade; and each trade has a potential profit target of 1% or more – based on my exit levels.
We MUST NEVER assume we KNOW where price is going next!

P.S.: Always keep in mind any major news releases. Be wary of possible price volatility during these periods.

Today on GBPUSD – Daily and H4 charts support Short trades.

On the Daily chart above, as a result of a broad dollar rally yesterday, price has broken the upward channel downward. We expect price to continue its downward move for the time being. There’s a support level – the most recent Daily swing low - @ 1.6309 (which we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line); Let’s keep this level in mind when managing our trades (in case we eventually identify a Short trade set-up on our Hourly charts – supported by the H4 chart).

On the H4 chart above, price has broken the most recent swing low @ 1.6389 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. From a day-trade perspective, this is a good sign supporting a Short trade. The white horizontal line @ 1.6555 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our short positions. Price pattern on the hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows; and note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

Update on today’s GBPUSD Long Trade set-up

Based on earlier analysis today, if you took a less aggressive position on the GBPUSD pair (also the EURUSD and USDCHF pairs), and waited for price to break the resistance level @ 1.6585 upward before seeking a Long trade set-up on the Hourly chart. Kudos! You succeeded in protecting yourself from a losing trade.
Also, if you identified the trade set-up on the Hourly chart above, and entered the trade around fib. 78.6% ret. @ 1.6476, you probably were able to manage your trade well enough to avoid loss.
I entered the trade around fib. 61.8% ret. @ 1.6493. Hence, I lost the trade; however, with a risk less than 0.5% of my capital.

For those of us employing trending methods, we need to fully understand the current market environment as that would protect us from seeking the HOLY GRAIL; and let’s always strive to keep learning about the strengths and weaknesses of our individual methods.

Today on GBPUSD – Daily and H4 charts support Long trades, but…

NOTE: To me, most of the majors are still choppy and indecisive; if you decide to stay in the market – and not stay away – proper Trade Management is the “HOLY GRAIL” here, and with that, please let us remember to keep our risks per trade very low. Large draw downs are very difficult to recover from.

On the Daily chart above, price is currently within an upward channel (thanks to Joetrece’s observation). We expect price to continue its upward move toward the upper part of the channel. However, there’s a critical resistance level – the most recent Daily swing high - @ 1.6585 (which we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line); it would be nice to see price break above this level. Also NOTE that price is currently hovering around a very major year-high resistance level @ 1.6744 (which we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line). Price currently might be struggling against a possible intense selling pressure.

On the H4 chart above, price has broken above the most recent swing high @ 1.6523 (which we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line). From a day-trade perspective, this is a good sign supporting a Long trade. The green horizontal line @ 1.6380 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it – in the absence of any new and higher swing low – our bullish or upward bias remains intact.
The resistance level @ 1.6585 that also happens to be the Daily swing high discussed earlier (which we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line) is quite important. The less aggressive traders might have to wait to see price break above this level before seeking a Long trade set-up on the Hourly.

However, regardless of our individual decisions, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels – to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today’s up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

Further Update on yesterday’s USDCHF Short Trade set-up

Currently, on my USDCHF Short trade, price has moved in my favor enough for me to consider taking profit. My preferred level of taking initial profit is @ 1.0666; however, with the new doji formation around a weekly pivot, I decided to take out some profits.
Pls NOTE I’ve adjusted my Stop Loss to just above the most recent swing high @ 1.0714.

My next exit level is the primary profit target @ 1.0626 (the fib. 127% ext.)

Update on today’s USDCHF Short Trade set-up

If you were able to identify the USDCHF Short trade set-up and took the trade, that’s nice. I took the trade, and I’m still in it.
Pls NOTE: I also took a Long trade on the EURUSD, but it didn’t work out.
Actually, the Daily charts analyses – for some time now – have often been telling us that the markets are choppy and indecisive. Hence, for more conservative traders, the analyses are good enough for them to stand aside. Personally, I’ve been reducing the percentage of capital risked per trade – until the Daily charts (and above) start giving signs that markets have started trending.

Using the Hourly chart above, I’ll like to chip-in one or two insights that I hope would assist us in managing our trades. Sincerely, I believe trade-management is one of the most effective ways of ensuring the steady growth of our equity curve.

I entered the trade with a Limit Order placed around the fib 61.8% ret (1.0706) – based on the confluence of overlapping fibs, a pivot, previous swing highs/lows. My initial Stop-Loss was @ 1.0740 (the most recent swing high before I entered the Short trade). As you could observe, price shot through my Limit Order @ fib. 61.8% upward, even some pips beyond the fib. 78.6% ret. before reversing.
Currently, price is yet to move enough in my favor for me to consider taking some profits; however, the new swing high @ 1.0733 has giving me the opportunity to move my Stop-Loss lower by a few pips. It might not be much, but every chance to reduce the potential amount that could be lost in a given trade is a golden opportunity that must not be disregarded.

Pls NOTE the fib 78.6% ret (1.0721) also had a confluence of overlapping fibs etc. supporting it. If you had placed your Limit Order around that level, unlike me, you would currently be having a more pleasurable time with this trade. However, you would have done that with the possibility of missing the trade.

Analysis Correction on the H4 chart

A friend just observed on my Forex Factory thread that the most recent swing low is @ 94.64 (the green horizontal line) – as against 94.58.

I apologize; hence I’ve modified the H4 chart (above).

Today on USDJPY – Daily and H4 charts support Long trades, but…

On the Daily chart above, last week, price closed above a cluster of resistance levels, two of which were the downward trend-line (the red dashed line), and the most recent Daily swing high @ 94.77 (which we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line); and has stayed above those levels. These are good signs sustaining a bullish or an upward-move bias. However, we have a new resistance level @ 95.28 (which we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line), and it would be nice to see price break this level upward to have a clearer coast. Please, I think it’s advisable to allow price break above this 95.28 level (which is just about 30 pips away) before we seek a Long trade set-up on the Hourly – supported by the H4 chart.

On the H4 chart above, also last week, price broke a couple of swing highs upward; the most recent of them was the swing high @ 94.37 (which we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line). From a day-trade perspective, this is a good sign supporting a Long trade. The green horizontal line @ 94.58 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it – in the absence of any new and higher swing low – our bullish or upward bias remains intact. One thing to note, however, is that price seems currently stuck between the most recent swing low @ 94.58 and the resistance level @ 95.28 (which we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line) that we discussed on the daily chart. Personally, this range is relatively narrow for a H4 chart (just about 70pips), and, as a result, I’m willing to let price break above the resistance @ 95.28 before I seek a Long trade set-up on the Hourly.

However, in case the coast eventually becomes clear enough, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels – to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today’s up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

Today on USDJPY – Daily and H4 charts support Long trades.

On the Daily chart above, yesterday, price closed above a cluster of resistance levels, two of which were the downward trend-line (the red dashed line), and the most recent Daily swing high @ 94.77 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line). These are good signs confirming a bullish or an upward-move bias. Though, we are still within a downward channel formation, there seems to be enough room for price to venture further upward toward the 96.50 area.

On the H4 chart above, price has broken a couple of swing highs upward: the most recent swing high @ 94.37 (which we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line), and a higher previous swing high – which happens to be the same Daily swing high discussed earlier – @ 94.77 (this we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line). From a day-trade perspective, this is a good sign supporting a Long trade. The green horizontal line @ 93.07 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it – in the absence of any new and higher swing low – our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels – to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today’s up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

Today on GBPUSD – Are the Daily and H4 charts supporting Long trades?

NOTE: These are very challenging times for trending methods: judging from the four majors that I trade, the market simply is indecisive. Like me, if you decide to stay in the market – and not stay away – proper Trade Management is the “HOLY GRAIL” here, and with that, please let us remember to keep our risks per trade very low. Large draw downs are very difficult to recover from.

On the Daily chart above, price seems to be in a sustained but very sluggish upward move. Currently, price is approaching a critical resistance level @ 1.6556 (which we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line) – about 50 pips away. A break above that level would ease our concern for any major obstacle to continuous price move upward. As a moderately conservative trader, please wait for the break above 1.6556 before seeking Long trade set-up on the Hourly; as a very conservative trader, I think it’s advisable to stay completely out of the market - I’m primarily referring to the four majors that I study; however, this view probably applies to virtually all pairs as, I believe, the economic uncertainties are global issues.

On the H4 chart Price has broken the most recent swing high @ 1.6503 (which we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line) upward. The critical resistance level @ 1.6556 that we referred to on the Daily chart is also visible on the H4 (this we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line). Please keep this level in mind. In all, from a day-trade perspective, the H4 chart is supporting a Long trade. The green horizontal line @ 1.6309 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it – in the absence of any new and higher swing low – our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, if you decide to go Long, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels – to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today’s up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

Update on today’s GBPUSD Short Trade set-up

Eventually, on this trade, I had a maximum loss of almost 0.5% of my capital. However, sometimes in a lost trade, there’re one or two lessons we could gain:

NOTE: I captured the attached 5min chart screen before price moved completely against me.

From the 5min chart above, you would notice my Limit Order was triggered @ 1.6375 – the fib 61.8% ret. Initially, price moved in my favor by about 28pips (to around 1.6347); however this was still a bit far from my initial target-level to take profit @ 1.6328 (which I’ve highlighted using the blue dashed line) – that would’ve been 47pips profit (the amount of pips initially risked). I might also have considered taking some profits anywhere from above 30pips; and adjusting my Stop Loss afterward.

The point I would like to make here is: with this method, price would often move a few pips in our favor before reversing against us – in the case of an unfavorable trade. During such periods, it’s absolutely left to us to determine the way we manage our trades.
For some, with this same method, this particular trade could have been a break-even trade – unfortunately, not for me.

The good news is my account is still well funded to comfortably take another trade – since I’m relatively very conservative at taking risks.

Warren Buffett’s hint:
Rule number one, don’t lose money. Rule number two, don’t forget rule number one. Rule number three, don’t go into debt.

Short Trade set-up on GBPUSD Hourly chart.

Pls. NOTE: As at the time of this posting, price had already rallied. These things happen so fast at times; but for the sake of study, I decided to go ahead and post it. Also NOTE that the rally occurred around the MPC Meetings Minutes news release: trading during news periods could be very risky, so please, if you have to trade, consider reducing your risk.
I’m currently in the trade, but yet to know if it would turn out profitable.

Although, the Daily chart isn’t offering too distinct a pattern to support a Short trade, it isn’t offering much to discourage one either.

On the H4 chart above, price recently broke below a swing low @ 1.6382 (which we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line), and that automatically shifts our bias to favor a downward price move. However, let’s keep in mind a critical support level: a Daily chart swing low @ 1.6263 that is also visible on the H4 chart (this we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line). The white horizontal line @ 1.6556 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

The Hourly chart above is currently forming a tradable pattern. Price seems to have bottomed temporarily @ 1.6309. Hence, we expect price to retrace to the area between 1.6363 and 1.6417 (which is the area between the 50% and 100% fib. retracement levels – drawn from the most recent hourly swing high to the current price-bottom). Let’s seek to sell around this area. If price exceeds the 1.6417 level upward, our bearish bias is no more valid and we enter a no-trading zone. Our primary profit target is @ 1.6280 (the 127% fib. ext.).

Also, if price breaks below 1.6309 (current price-bottom) before retracing to the sell-area, we’ll have to redraw our Fibonacci tools using a new bottom & the most recent hourly swing high to determine new potential areas to sell.
NOTE: Price will reach our profit target before the critical support @ 1.6263 that we discussed much earlier today – an encouraging sign. However, that would be if price didn’t break too far below the current price-bottom before retracing upward to the sell-area.

The 15min. chart above gives us a clearer view of the hourly price action and the potential areas to sell (please note it’s advisable to set a Limit order ahead of time as price could move up to these levels and reverse sharply in our favor)
This chart is rather cluttered but if we look closely, there are a couple of potential reversal levels available. You choose your preferred level based on your personality.

fib 61.8% ret. @ 1.6375;
fib 78.6% ret. @ 1.6393 (Pls note this level doesn’t look as strong as the 61.8% ret.: the identified resistance levels around it aren’t too close together)

Initial Stop Loss @ 1.6419; primary Profit target @ 1.6280 (Please remember to factor in your broker’s pip-spread).

Please note that all these Fibonacci (fib.) levels have other pivots, overlapping fibs or previous highs/lows supporting them (they are the cause of this cluttered chart). As such, price could reverse at any of the points. The issue here is that the higher the fib level you choose to sell from, the smaller the pips you’ll risk and the more your pip-profit; BUT, also the more the likelihood of you missing the trade as price might not retrace that high before moving back downward.
You need your own discretion here.

Please keep your risk low. Don’t risk more than 2% of your capital. Personally, I risk about 0.5% per trade; and each trade has a potential profit target of 1% or more – based on my exit levels.
We MUST NEVER assume we KNOW where price is going next!

P.S.:
Also, keep in mind the MPC Meeting Minutes news release at 08:30 GMT – be wary of possible price volatility during this period.

Update on today’s EURUSD Long Trade set-up

If you were able to identify the EURUSD Long trade set-up and took the trade; that’s nice, because it happened quite fast.

The Hourly chart above shows the set-up I saw. Hope you can view the formation easily as it is very tiny and cluttered

Using the 5min chart above, I’ll like to give you an idea of how I manage my trades. Yours could be slightly or completely different; it doesn’t matter – as long as it suits your personality.

Based on my method, I placed my initial Stop Loss 2-pips below the most recent hourly swing low @ 1.4198 (please, where necessary, always factor in your broker’s spread)

I identified two potential reversal levels at:
fib 50% ret. @ 1.4237
fib 78.6% ret. @ 1.4215

I placed a Limit Order @ 1.4215 (I decided not to factor my broker’s spread, but I don’t always disregard it)

Pls note that I don’t really like using the 50% fib. ret. level as the reward/risk ratio is always close to 1:1; and I prefer 2:1 and above (or, at least, close to 2:1)

With 3 lots, I exited first lot when price moved favorably by same amount risked, which was 19pips @ the 1.4234 level (which I’ve highlighted using the blue dashed line). Then, I moved my Stop Loss to 2pips below the level where price initially reversed (hope you can see where my Stop Loss is currently). With that, my trade is already protected from loss (as in this case) or from maximum loss of 0.5% of my capital initially risked (as in other applicable cases)

At times, if the pips risked is close to 50pips or more, I take some profits before it gets to the amount of pips risked OR move my Stop Loss to break-even (honestly, this aspect is simply an area everybody has to handle in their own individual ways).

This is a bit lengthy, but I hope it helps.

For anyone that finds this method helpful, and didn’t know much about it, it might take some time to fully settle into it, but I believe it’ll worth the time invested. Personally, though I’ve learnt a lot about it, I’m still learning every day.

NOTE: Currently, as I’m about posting this, I’ve been stopped out; but I’m happy I managed the trade well enough to protect myself from loss (I’m not always that fortunate). And I always remind myself that there’s always another trade.

Today on EURUSD – Daily and H4 charts support Long trades.

On the Daily chart above, price is conveniently out of and above its symmetrical triangle formation: previous swing highs are being broken to the upside. The latest swing high price closed above was a critical resistance level @ 1.4201 (which we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line), which isn’t just a Daily swing high, but also a Weekly swing high. These are lovely signs confirming a bullish or an upward-move bias. A very critical resistance is @ 1.4336 (which we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line). Let’s keep this level in mind (in relation to our profit target, in case we are eventually able to get a Long trade set-up on the Hourly chart – supported by the H4 chart).

On the H4 chart above, the EURUSD is simply in an obvious up-trend: price keeps forming higher highs and higher lows. A trending market doesn’t get more beautiful than this. Price has broken the most recent swing high @ 1.4166 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) upward. From a day-trade perspective, this is a good sign supporting a Long trade. The green horizontal line @ 1.4062 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it – in the absence of any new and higher swing low – our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels – to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today’s up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

Short Trade set-up on USDCHF Hourly chart.

Earlier today, we concluded today’s bias is to go Short.

The Hourly chart above is currently forming a tradable pattern. Price seems to have bottomed temporarily @ 1.0658. Hence, we expect price to retrace to the area between 1.0706 and 1.0753 (which is the area between the 50% and 100% fib. retracement levels – drawn from the most recent hourly swing high to the current price-bottom). Let’s seek to sell around this area. If price exceeds the 1.0753 level upward, our bearish bias is no more valid and we enter a no-trading zone. Our primary profit target is @ 1.0633 (the 127% fib. ext.).

Also, if price breaks below 1.0658 (current price-bottom) before retracing to the sell-area, we’ll have to redraw our Fibonacci tools using a new bottom & the most recent hourly swing high to determine new potential areas to sell. NOTE: Price will reach our profit target before the critical support @ 1.0630 that we discussed much earlier today – an encouraging sign. However, that would be if price didn’t break below the current price-bottom before retracing upward the sell-area.

The 15min. chart above gives us a clearer view of the hourly price action and the potential areas to sell (please note it’s advisable to set a Limit order ahead of time as price could move up to these level and reverse sharply in our favor)
This chart is rather cluttered but if we look closely, there are a couple of potential reversal levels available. You choose your preferred level based on your personality.

fib 61.8% ret. @ 1.0717;
fib 78.6% ret. @ 1.0733.

Initial Stop Loss @ 1.0755; primary Profit target @ 1.0633 (Please remember to factor in your broker’s pip-spread).

Please note that all these Fibonacci (fib.) levels have other pivots, overlapping fibs or previous highs/lows supporting them (they are the cause of this cluttered chart). As such, price could reverse at any of the points. The issue here is that the higher the fib level you choose to sell from, the smaller the pips you’ll risk and the more your pip-profit; BUT, also the more the likelihood of you missing the trade as price might not retrace that high before moving back downward.
You need your own discretion here.

Please keep your risk low. Don’t risk more than 2% of your capital. Personally, I risk about 0.5% per trade; and each trade has a potential profit target of 1% or more – based on my exit levels.
We MUST NEVER assume we KNOW where price is going next!

P.S.:
Similar Long trade set-up is forming on the EURUSD pairs.
Also, always keep in mind any major news releases. Be wary of possible price volatility during these periods.

Today on USDCHF – Daily and H4 charts support Short trades.

On the Daily chart above, price closed below the symmetrical triangle on Thurday – last week, re-tested it on Friday; and currently, it seems set to continue its downward move. To buttress this bearish bias, price recently broke last week Thurday low @ 1.0701 (a previous critical support level). From a day-trade perspective, we have good reason to go Short – provided the H4 chart support the downward move bias.
The next critical support level is @ 1.0630 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line). We should keep this level in mind (in relation to our profit target, in case we are eventually able to get a Short trade set-up on the hourly chart). If price breaks below the level before retracing upward, it’ll even make the coast clearer for a Short trade.

On the H4 chart above, price has broken the most recent swing low @ 1.0701 (which we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line) downward. As we’ve probably observed, this swing low @ 1.0701, coincidentally, is also the last week Thursday low that we discussed on the Daily chart. From a day-trade perspective, this is a good sign supporting a Short trade. The white horizontal line @ 1.0816 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.
The critical support level @ 1.0630 (which we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line) that we also discussed on the Daily chart is visible too on H4 chart. Let’s really keep it in mind when managing our Short trades – in case we eventually got into one.

However, we still need our hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

Short Trade set-up on GBPUSD Hourly chart.

Earlier today, we concluded today’s bias is to go Short.

The Hourly chart above is currently forming a tradable pattern. Price seems to have bottomed temporarily @ 1.6283. Hence, we expect price to retrace to the area between 1.6350 and 1.6416 (which is the area between the 50% and 100% fib. retracement levels – drawn from the most recent hourly swing high to the current price-bottom). Let’s seek to sell around this area. If price exceeds the 1.6416 level upward, our bearish bias is no more valid and we enter a no-trading zone. Our primary profit target is @ 1.6247 (the 127% fib. ext.).

Also, if price breaks below 1.6283 (current price-bottom) before retracing to the sell-area, we’ll have to redraw our Fibonacci tools using a new bottom & the most recent hourly swing high to determine new potential areas to sell.

The 15min. chart above gives us a clearer view of the hourly price action and the potential areas to sell (please note it’s advisable to set a Limit order ahead of time as price could move up to these level and reverse sharply in our favor)
This chart is rather cluttered but if we look closely, there are a couple of potential reversal levels available. You choose your preferred level based on your personality.

fib 61.8% ret. @ 1.6365;
fib 78.6% ret. @ 1.6387.

Initial Stop Loss @ 1.6418; primary Profit target @ 1.6247 (Please remember to factor in your broker’s pip-spread).

Please note that all these Fibonacci (fib.) levels have other pivots, overlapping fibs or previous highs/lows supporting them (they are the cause of this cluttered chart). As such, price could reverse at any of the points. The issue here is that the higher the fib level you choose to sell from, the smaller the pips you’ll risk and the more your pip-profit; BUT, also the more the likelihood of you missing the trade as price might not retrace that high before moving back downward.
You need your own discretion here.

Please keep your risk low. Don’t risk more than 2% of your capital. Personally, I risk about 0.5% per trade; and each trade has a potential profit target of 1% or more – based on my exit levels.
We MUST NEVER assume we KNOW where price is going next!

P.S.:
Always keep in mind any major news releases. Be wary of possible price volatility during these periods.

Today on GBPUSD – Daily and H4 charts support Short trades.

On the Daily chart above, price struggled to continue its upward move yesterday, and it closed with a doji candle formation. The doji gave a signal of possible price reversal downward – especially since it formed around the 1.6440 area, which, although offered no distinct high or low, is congested with previous support and resistance levels. To buttress our bearish bias, price recently broke below previous day low @ 1.6355. The critical support trend-line is still hundreds of pips below the current price level, hence – barring any intense price volatility – we can still conveniently seek a Short trade set-up on the hourly chart, as long as the H4 charts supports a Short trade.

On the H4 chart above, price has broken the most recent swing low @ 1.6355 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. As we’ve probably observed, this swing low @ 1.6355, coincidentally, is also the previous day low. From a day-trade perspective, this is a good sign supporting a Short trade. The white horizontal line @ 1.6481 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

Update on today’s GBPUSD Long Trade set-up

If you’ve not been able to go Long on the GBPUSD based on the Long trade set-up that was posted a few hours ago (using the fib 61.8% retracement @ 1.6403), a new hourly swing low has been formed @ 1.6395; hence, the previous set-up is no more valid. If you took the trade around the fib 61.8% ret., it’s time to move your stop to just under the new hourly swing low @ 1.6395 (Hope you see this post in time, in case price decides to break the swing low downward).
Another signal that is currently weakening our upward move bias is the waving –ve MACD divergence that is about crossing below its signal line. MACD crossing below its signal line will validate the –ve MACD divergence, which supports the possibility of further price movement downward.

Personally, I took this trade @ the fib 61.8% ret.; took some profits when price moved favorably by almost the same amount of pips I risked initially (47pips), and have now moved my Stop Loss for the remaining position to under the new hourly swing low @ 1.6395.

Long Trade set-up on GBPUSD Hourly chart.

Earlier today, we concluded today’s bias is to go Long.

The Hourly chart above is currently forming a tradable pattern. Price seems to have topped temporarily @ 1.6481. Hence, we expect price to retrace to the area between 1.6418 and 1.6355 (which is the area between the 50% and 100% fib. retracement levels – drawn from the most recent hourly swing low to the current price-top). Let’s seek to buy around this area. If price exceeds the 1.6355 level downward, our bullish bias is no more valid and we enter a no-trading zone. Our primary profit target is @ 1.6514 (the 127% fib. ext.).

Also, if price breaks above 1.6481 (current price-top) before retracing to the buy-area, we’ll have to redraw our Fibonacci tools using a new top & the most recent hourly swing low to determine new potential areas to buy.

The 15min. chart above gives us a clearer view of the hourly price action and the potential areas to buy (please note it’s advisable to set a Limit order ahead of time as price could move down to these level and reverse sharply in our favor)
This chart is rather cluttered but if we look closely, there are a couple of potential reversal levels available. You choose your preferred level based on your personality.

fib 61.8% ret. @ 1.6403;
fib 78.6% ret. @ 1.6382.

Initial Stop Loss @ 1.6353; primary Profit target @ 1.6514 (Please remember to factor in your broker’s pip-spread).

Please note that all these Fibonacci (fib.) levels have other pivots, overlapping fibs or previous highs/lows supporting them (they are the cause of this cluttered chart). As such, price could reverse at any of the points. The issue here is that the deeper the fib level you choose to buy from, the smaller the pips you’ll risk and the more your pip-profit; BUT, also the more the likelihood of you missing the trade as price might not retrace that deep before moving back upward.
You need your own discretion here.

Please keep your risk low. Don’t risk more than 2% of your capital. Personally, I risk about 0.5% per trade; and each trade has a potential profit target of 1% or more – based on my exit levels.
We MUST NEVER assume we KNOW where price is going next!

P.S.:
Similar Short trade and Long trade set-ups are forming on the USDCHF and GBPUSD pairs respectively.
Also, always keep in mind any major news releases. Be wary of possible price volatility during these periods.

Today on GBPUSD – Daily and H4 charts support Long trades.

On the Daily chart above, price recently broke the most recent swing high @ 1.6379 (which we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line) upward. This signals the possibility of further price movement upward. A major resistance level – the GBPUSD pair year high – is @ 1.6744 (which we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line). This, however, is hundreds of pips away, so, it’s not in any way an imminent barrier for a Long trade from a day-trade perspective – barring any sudden price surge.

On the H4 chart above, from a day-trade perspective, we are in a nice up-trend: price is forming higher highs and higher lows. Price has broken the most recent swing high @ 1.6343 (which we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line) upward, and re-testing it. This is another good sign supporting a Long trade.

However, we still need our hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels – to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today’s up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

Today on EURUSD – Daily and H4 charts support Long trades, but…

On the Daily chart above, we could see the market is in a symmetrical triangle formation. From a longer term perspective, this is a price consolidation phase and it’s probably better to stay out of the market for now. However, from a day-trade perspective, price recently broke the most recent swing high @ 1.4072 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) upward. This signals the possibility of further upward move. Again, although price is advancing toward the upper part of the symmetrical triangle – a critical resistance area – there’s still room for price to move a bit further upward. Please note we’re only contemplating a Long trade because we’re analyzing the market from a day-trade perspective. Nevertheless, the upper part of the symmetrical triangle remains a critical resistance area. As a conservative trader, it’s just ok to wait for a clearer coast, or reduce your risk if you decide to seek a Long trade set-up on the hourly chart.

On the H4 chart above, price recently broke the most recent swing high @ 1.4014 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) upward. From a day-trade perspective, this automatically shifts our bias for price movement upward. The green horizontal line @ 1.3910 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it – in the absence of any new and higher swing low – our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels – to seek promising areas to take our long positions. Price pattern on the hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today’s up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

Today on USDJPY – Daily and H4 charts support Long trades.

On the Daily chart above, since last week, the base of the downward channel has been doing a good job of holding price from moving further downward, and with a series of reversal candle patterns (including hammers and spinning tops/inside candles), price seems set to rally upward – probably toward the upper part of the channel.

On the H4 chart above, price recently broke the most recent swing high @ 92.93 upward. From a day-trade perspective, this automatically shifts our bias for price movement upward. The green horizontal line @ 91.71 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it – in the absence of any new and higher swing low – our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels – to seek promising areas to take our long positions. Price pattern on the hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today’s up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

Short Trade set-up on GBPUSD hourly.

Earlier today, we concluded today’s bias is to go short.

The Hourly chart above is currently forming a tradable pattern. Price bottomed temporarily @ 1.6031. Hence, we expected price to retrace to the area between 1.6130 and 1.6230 (which is the area between the 50% and 100% fib. retracement levels – drawn from the most recent hourly swing high to the current price-bottom). Currently, price has retraced to the 50% fib. level. Let’s seek to sell around this area. If price exceeds the 1.6230 level upward, our bearish bias is no more valid and we enter a no-trading zone. Our profit target is @ 1.5977.


The 15min. chart above gives us a clearer view of the hourly price action and the potential areas to sell (please note it’s advisable to set a Limit order ahead of time as price could move up to these levels and reverse sharply in our favor)
This chart is rather cluttered but if we look closely, there are a couple of potential reversal levels available. You choose your preferred level based on your personality.

fib 50% ret. @ 1.6130 (price is currently at this level);
fib 78.6% ret. @ 1.6187.

Initial Stop Loss @ 1.6232; primary Profit target @ 1.5977 (Please remember to factor in your broker’s pip-spread).

Please note that all these Fibonacci (fib.) levels have other pivots, overlapping fibs or previous highs/lows supporting them (they are the cause of this cluttered chart). As such, price could reverse at any of the points. The issue here is that the higher the fib level you choose to sell from, the smaller the pips you’ll risk and the more your pip-profit; BUT, also the more the likelihood of you missing the trade as price might not retrace that high before moving back downward.
You need your own discretion here. Personally, I usually don’t go for 50% as the reward/risk is too conservative for me, but it doesn’t mean you can’t profit using it as your entry level, as long as your trade is well managed. As shown, my limit order is already set around the 78.6% level.

Please keep your risk low. Don’t risk more than 2% of your capital. Personally, I risk about 0.5% per trade; and each trade has a potential profit target of 1% or more – based on my exit levels.

Today on GBPUSD – Weekly and H4 charts support Short trades.

On the Weekly chart above, since the month of May, series of reversal candle patterns have been forming around the 38.2% fib. retracement level. This is a good sign that supports a possibility of a protracted and sustained downward price movement that might last for months.

On the Daily chart above, the negative MACD divergence is still intact, and still confirming our bias for a downward price move. However, the upward or demand trend-line (the red line) is a critical place to keep close eye on, as well as the daily swing low @ 1.5982 (which we’ve highlighted using the broken blue line): price may find strong support as it moves further down toward these areas.

On the H4 chart above, from a day-trade perspective, we are in a downtrend. Price has broken the most recent swing low @ 1.6153 downward; but as we observed on the Daily chart, let’s keep close eye on the critical support @ 1.5982, which we are also seeing on the H4.
Personally, from a day-trade perspective, the coast is clear enough to seek a Short Trade set-up on the hourly, but it’s also not a bad idea to wait for price to break the critical support @ 1.5982 downward before seeking to sell.

Please remember, we always need our hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our short positions. Price pattern on the hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: to sell today, we need to patiently wait for the hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.