Friday, September 25, 2009

Today on GBPUSD – Daily and H4 charts support Short trades.

On the Daily chart above, much quicker than anticipated, the bears are recovering lost ground. Yesterday, we discussed that the GBPUSD Daily chart – in agreement with the Weekly and Monthly charts – supported the idea that the bears were showing signs of recovery as price reversed on its way toward the upper edge of the symmetrical triangle to retest the triangle’s lower edge; and that the triangle’s lower edge – forming a support-confluence with the Daily chart most recent swing low @ 1.6132 (which we've highlighted using the upper blue broken line) – remained a critical level that the bears must breach decisively to prove their strength.
Before the close of yesterday’s candle, the bears did not just breach the support-confluence, they broke below it decisively with over 350-pip move. Now, all we could expect – based on these recent price actions – is further downward price movement for, probably, a protracted period of time. Our bias is simply bearish. However, price is currently at another critical support level – a previous Daily and Weekly charts swing low @ 1.5982 (which we've highlighted using the lower blue broken line); while our bias is bearish, let’s keep this level in mind as we seek our Short trade setups – with the support of the H4 chart.

On the H4 chart above, price – since yesterday – had broken the most recent swing low @ 1.6328 (which we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line) downward. That automatically sustains our bias in favor of a downward price move. The white horizontal line @ 1.6468 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.
Please NOTE that the strength of the critical support level @ 1.5982 (that we've highlighted using the lower blue broken line), which we discussed on the Daily chart, is more visible on the H4 chart as we already have a reversal candle formation (railway tracks OR inside candle – based on individual perception) around the level. Let’s expect an upward price retracement, which, possibly, would aid a Short trade setup on the Hourly chart.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

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