Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Today on EURUSD - Daily and H4 charts support Long trades, but…

On the Daily chart above, again, earlier today we experienced another bullish price action: price-break above the previous day’s high. Much earlier, the previous day’s candle closed above the most recent Daily swing high @ 1.4766 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line). These signs are confirming that the bulls are probably ready to push further. However, as mentioned yesterday: “personally, the current rally has been a steep one, and, consequently, a major retracement – as we’ve been discussing since last week – might be imminent.” But again, what we currently know is that the bulls are yet to show signs of weakness – at least on the Daily chart; hence, from a day-trade perspective, let’s keep seeking Long trade setups until price action indicates otherwise.

On the H4 chart above, price has broken the most recent swing high @ 1.4820 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line) upward. That sustains our bias in favor of an upward price move. However, a couple of price actions are indicating an imminent downward price retracement in a very strong uptrend: the first price action is the reversal candle formation (a hammer or inside candle – depending on the way we see it as individuals) right on the most recent swing high @ 1.4820; a sign that the bulls are really struggling to maintain their hold. The second warning signal is a waving negative MACD Divergence (highlighted using the red lines on both panes of the chart), which, although yet to be a valid divergence, is a relatively good sign that the bears are prepared to take over – even if just temporarily. In all, as mentioned on the Daily chart, the bulls are still in charge, BUT please, let’s be mindful of the warning signs.
The green horizontal line @ 1.4610 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts - using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels - to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today's up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

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