Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Is the GBPUSD having a change of mind?

Since the beginning of August, higher time frame charts have been signaling the possibility of bears dominating the GBPUSD for a relatively protracted period. However, while the Monthly and Weekly charts are still giving bearish signals, the Daily chart above seems to be having a change of mind: The negative MACD Divergence has been weakened and MACD is about crossing its Signal Line upward. MACD's close above its Signal Line at the end of today will invalidate the negative Divergence. Also, we would notice that after price broke decisively above a downward trend-line (the down trending red line), it seems determined to close above the resistance area - a previous upward trend-line (the red dashed line), which we've been discussing for days. The next critical resistance level that might halt the bullish surge is a Daily swing high @ 1.6623 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line).

On the H4 chart above, price has broken the most recent swing high @ 1.6442 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line) upward. That shifts our bias in favor of an upward price move. The green horizontal line @ 1.6321 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts - using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels - to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today's up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

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