Friday, September 11, 2009

Today on GBPUSD - Daily and H4 charts support Long trades.

On the Daily chart above, while the Monthly and Weekly charts are still giving bearish signals, the Daily chart has signaled move in the opposite direction. The negative MACD Divergence, which was a primary factor that sustained our bearish bias for weeks, has been invalidated: as seen on the lower pane of the chart, MACD has crossed its Signal Line upward. Also, yesterday, price closed above a strong resistance level - a Daily swing high @ 1.6623 (which we've highlighted using the lower blue broken line). The next critical resistance level - the year high @ 1.7042 (which we've highlighted using the upper blue broken line) is a defining level that, if broken upward, would invalidate every indicator supporting a protracted bearish move that we discussed throughout the entire month of August. In all, from a day-trade perspective, we have a strong case in favor of a continuous upward price movement.

On the H4 chart above, price has broken the most recent swing high @ 1.6591 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line) upward. That sustains our bias in favor of an upward price move. The green horizontal line @ 1.6479 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts - using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels - to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today's up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

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