Friday, September 4, 2009

Today on GBPUSD – NFP Rules.

Pls NOTE: Based on personal experience, if there’s one particular day in every month that day-traders employing trending patterns should be wary of trading most, it has to be the first Fridays of every month when the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report is usually released. Early market hours are usually dull; afterward, usually around the news release, we have extreme volatility, which disrupts any recognizable chart patterns; hence, the entire trading day becomes virtually un-tradable.
Price action on the GBPUSD pair is buttressing the fact that today isn’t the best of days to contemplate trading:


On the Daily chart above, price action is somewhat confusing – probably reflecting the current collective attitude of traders. On Wednesday, despite the overwhelming number of factors supporting the bears’ dominance, the “loner” upward trend-line (the upward trending red solid line – NOT the bold line) proved its strength as price wasn’t only unable to close below it, but price was forced to reverse upward. Currently, price is in a rather confused state: a previous upward trend-line (the red dashed line) that price broke below about a week ago, which has been acting as a strong resistance area, again, halted price reversal upward yesterday; a downward trend-line (the downward trending red solid line) is also a level price has to close decisively above if we’re going to expect further price movement upward.
As we could see, studying today’s price action on the Daily chart is rather perplexing; and it gives more credence to the fact that traders are probably waiting for the NFP report to act decisively.

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