Friday, October 9, 2009

Today on USDJPY – We seem to be at the beginning of a bullish retracement.

On the Daily chart above, two days ago – on Wednesday – we identified the 88.00 level as “an area where some institutional traders had “large stop-loss sales lurked.” Although, we didn’t place primary emphasis on it in the analysis, it arguably turned out to be the sole driving force of the USDJPY pair since then. During the very early hours of today, price rallied by almost 100 pips; and currently, the pair has moved more than a 100 pips upward. As a result, price pierced sharply above the steep downward or bearish trend-line. Though price is yet to close above the trend-line (that would be determined after close of today’s candle), its big break above the trend-line – in addition to the strong 88.00 support level – gives us an inkling that a bullish retracement, probably, has started.
We expect the bulls to meet their next major resistance around a major Daily swing low @ 90.11 (that we've highlighted using the upper blue broken line), which might be forming a resistance-confluence with the upper bearish trend-line (the bold red line).

On the H4 chart above, price has broken the most recent swing high @ 88.68 (which we've highlighted using the lower blue broken line) upward. That shifts our bias in favor of an upward price move. Price action around the steep bearish trend-line, which we discussed on the Daily chart, is clearer on the H4 chart: we already have a candle closed above the trend-line, and that buttresses our bullish bias. The critical resistance level – a Daily swing low @ 90.11, which we also discussed on the Daily chart, could also be seen on the H4 chart: from a day-trade perspective, we seem to have enough room for further bullish move – although over 100-pip move already made today might restrain any new price rally.
The green horizontal line @ 88.13 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts - using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels - to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today's up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

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