Monday, October 26, 2009

Today on GBPUSD – Finally, the bears gave an unmistakable signal.

On the Weekly chart above, the bears gave us a very strong sign that they aren’t just ready to let go: last week’s candle closed as a strong reversal candle (a hammer). Price closed @ 1.6303, just below a downward or bearish trend-line; it initially rallied toward the most recent Weekly swing high @ 1.6741 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line) only to meet a strong resistance about 50 pips away from the critical 1.6741 level, and, as earlier said, it was eventually forced to close below the bearish trend-line. These actions tell us nothing else other than the fact that the bears are still in control.

On the Daily chart above, last week (precisely Wednesday and Thursday), while the bulls were flexing their muscles, we concluded that the 1.6741 level (that we've highlighted using the upper blue broken line), which we identified on the Weekly chart as the most recent Weekly swing high, was a “very significant level” as it is the area where we have both right and left shoulders of the Head & Shoulders formation. As we alluded to when analyzing the Weekly chart, the 1.6741 proved its strength: price was forced to reverse sharply as it advanced toward it, about 50 pips away from it – although from a day-trade perspective, we would have preferred that price advanced much further toward the 1.6741 level before the sharp reversal.
Again, all current price actions are telling us is “think short!”
The next area where we should expect a strong support is around the most recent Daily swing high @ 1.6119 (which we've highlighted using the lower blue broken line).

On the H4 chart above, price, decisively, broke the most recent swing low @ 1.6486 (which we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line) downward. That automatically shifted our bias in favor of a downward price move. The 1.6119 support level, which we discussed on the Daily chart, is also shown on the H4 chart (the lower blue broken line). Price is currently almost 200 pips from this support level; hence, we seem to have enough room to seek Short trades.
The white horizontal line @ 1.6692 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

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