Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Today on USDJPY – Daily and H4 charts support Short trades.

On the Daily chart above, earlier this week, price attempted to break decisively above a strong resistance-confluence of fib 38.2% ret. and the most recent Weekly swing low @ 91.71 (which we've highlighted using the upper blue broken line); however, current price action is telling us the level is holding after all. The previous day’s candle closed, as a bearish candle, around the 91.71 level; and further downward price movement earlier today is strengthening the notion that the bears are back in control. Our bias is currently bearish. The next critical support level, where we expect the bears’ resolve to be tested, is the most recent Daily swing low @ 90.06 (which we've highlighted using the lower blue broken line).

On the H4 chart above, price has broken the most recent swing low @ 91.56 (which we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line) downward. That automatically shifts our bias in favor of a downward price move. The 90.06 support level, which we discussed on the Daily chart, is also shown on the H4 chart (the lower blue broken line). Price is currently more than 100 pips away from this support level; hence, we seem to have enough room to seek Short trades.
The white horizontal line @ 92.17 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

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