Friday, October 30, 2009

Today on GBPUSD - Daily and H4 charts support Long trades, but…

On the Daily chart above, while our overall bearish bias is still valid, it’s been consistently challenged by the bulls. From a day-trade perspective, based on current price actions, we might have to temporarily ride the upward retracement. Since the beginning of this week, the bulls have been in charge, and at the close of yesterday, there was no sign their strength was waning. While our daily bias is bullish, we’ll need one more price action to be convinced of further bullish movement: we would like to see price break above the previous day’s high @ 1.6603 (not highlighted). In case the 1.6603 level eventually gets broken, we expect a very strong resistance @ 1.6692 (which we've highlighted using the upper blue broken line). The 1.6692 level is currently a resistance-confluence of the most recent Daily swing high and a bearish trend-line.

On the H4 chart above, price had broken a previous most recent swing high @ 1.6466 (which we've highlighted using the lowest blue broken line) upward. That sustained our bias in favor of an upward price move.
As discussed on the Daily chart, the 1.6603 level (that we've highlighted using the middle blue broken line), which is “acting” a dual role of the most recent H4 swing high as well as the previous day’s high, is a level we would like to see price break above for us to be convinced of further bullish movement.
The 1.6692 level (the highest blue broken line), which we also discussed on the Daily chart, is shown on the H4 chart. We have about 90 pip-gap, between the 1.6603 and 1.6692 levels; hence, in case price eventually breaks above the 1.6603 level, we would, probably, still have enough room to seek Long trades – from a day-trade perspective.
The green horizontal line @ 1.6336 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts - using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels - to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today's up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

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