Thursday, October 8, 2009

Today on EURUSD - Daily and H4 charts support Long trades, but…

On the Daily chart above, we would observe that the EURUSD is in a very strong uptrend; an uptrend that started around March, this year (2009). Although, the uptrend is still seen as a bullish retracement on the Monthly chart, as far as we are concerned, from a shorter term point of view, we are in a strong uptrend. The bulls resumed their control on Friday, last week, and since then, we’ve somewhat been in a steady upward movement. From a day-trade perspective, we seem to have enough room to still long the pair. We expect price to continue its upward move toward the year high – also the most recent Daily swing high – @ 1.4843 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line). The 1.4843 is a critical resistance level, hence let’s be cautious as price advances toward it. The 1.4843 level would also, most likely, be supported by the upper edge of the upward or bullish channel.

On the H4 chart above, price has broken the most recent swing high @ 1.4736 (which we've highlighted using the lower blue broken line) upward. That sustains our bias in favor of an upward price move. The 1.4843 level (that we've highlighted using the upper blue broken line), which we discussed on the Daily chart, is shown on the H4 chart to give us a clearer view of its proximity to current price position. We have about 70 pips gap, which gives enough room to seek Long trades – from a day-trade perspective; however, let’s still be very conscious of the level.
The green horizontal line @ 1.4649 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts - using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels - to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today's up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

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