Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Today on USDJPY – Daily and H4 charts support Short trades.

On the Daily chart above, on Friday, last week, we anticipated a bullish retracement based on price’s sharp break above the lower trend-line – which was, most likely, aided by the strong support area @ 88.00 (that we've highlighted using the lower blue broken line). Based on further analysis, we also noted, using the following words, that: “We expect the bulls to meet their next major resistance around a major Daily swing low @ 90.11 (that we've highlighted using the upper blue broken line), which might be forming a resistance-confluence with the upper bearish trend-line (the bold red line).”
In line with our analysis, the rally stalled around the 90.11 level; and currently, preceded by previous two days’ reversal candle formations, the bears seem ready to continue their movement. We expect major support around the same 88.00 support level, which previously was unbreakable for the bears. From a day trade perspective, we seem to have enough room to seek Short trades.

On the H4 chart above, price has broken the most recent swing low @ 89.61 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. That automatically shifts our bias in favor of a downward price move. The white horizontal line @ 90.02 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

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