Today on EURUSD – NFP Rules.

Pls NOTE: Today is another first Friday, hence we expect the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report to have its impact on the general behavior of the markets. Again, as I’ve always said, today – as with most first Fridays of every month – is one particular day that trending method/pattern traders should be wary of trading most. Based on personal experience, early market hours are usually dull, afterward, usually around the news release, we have extreme volatility, which disrupts any recognizable chart patterns; hence, the entire trading day becomes virtually un-tradable.
While I’ll go ahead to give my personal analysis on the EURUSD pair, please, let’s bear in mind that, regardless of any technical analyses, NFP usually rules today.

On the Daily chart above, since price broke below the most recent Daily swing low @ 1.4610 (which we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line), our bias has turned bearish. Hence we expect price to travel further south toward the lower edge of the upward or bullish channel, where, currently, we also have a critical support level – a previous Daily swing high @ 1.4405 (which we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line).

On the H4 chart above, price has broken the most recent swing low @ 1.4574 (which we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line) downward. This automatically shifts our bias in favor of a downward price move. We would observe that price is also within a bearish channel on the H4 chart, and the coast seems quite clear for price to continue its southward trip toward the lower edge of the bearish or downward channel, which, coincidentally, also currently aligns with the 1.4405 support level (that we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line), which we discussed on the Daily chart.
The white horizontal line @ 1.4672 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.