Friday, October 23, 2009

Today on EURUSD – How much longer would the bulls hold this steep move?

On the Daily chart above, we would observe the bulls’ unrelenting move since the start of October. Though price, for a few days, has been struggling to break decisively above the upper edge of the upward or bullish channel, we are yet to have any convincing signal on the daily chart that the bulls are weak enough to buckle. Currently, price has broken yesterday’s high @ 1.5037: a sign of a possible continuous upward price movement. However, price rally has been relatively steep, and it’s just natural for this move to halt, at least temporarily, at a certain point. But from a day-trade perspective, as long as we believe in the strength of technical analysis, we have no choice but to keep our bias in favor of the bulls.
And whenever price finally decides to have its bearish retracement, we expect a strong support around the most recent swing low @ 1.4827 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line).

On the H4 chart above, price has breached the most recent swing high @ 1.5045 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line) upward. That sustains our bias in favor of an upward price move. However, we would observe a reversal candle formation around the 1.5045 level; that’s another sign that the bulls might be experiencing difficulty maintaining their hold. Please let’s bear that in mind.
The green horizontal line @ 1.4943 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts - using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels - to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today's up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

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