Thursday, October 22, 2009

Today on GBPUSD – Daily and H4 charts support Long trades, but…

On the Daily chart above, yesterday, we observed that the bulls were “shattering a number of resistance levels. The most recent of the levels was a resistance-confluence: the combination of a Daily swing high @ 1.6468 (which we've highlighted using the lower blue broken line), and the upper edge of the downward or bearish channel. This observation is still valid and very useful. However, current price action compels us to exercise restraint in riding the bulls: earlier today, price hit the previous day’s high @ 1.6636 but was unable to hold above it; hence the bears are currently holding sway for today. We expect price to find support around the previous resistance-confluence @ 1.6468 (which should now act as a good support level). Our bias is still very bullish, but we would need further confirmation on the Hourly chart – supported by the H4 chart – to seek Long trade setups.
As we also concluded yesterday, “the next critical resistance level is the most recent Weekly swing high @ 1.6741 (which we've highlighted using the upper blue broken line). The 1.6741 level is also acting as the area where we have both right and left shoulders of the Head & Shoulders formation; and that makes it a very significant level.”

On the H4 chart above, similar to yesterday’s analysis, price broke the most recent swing high @ 1.6488 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line) upward. That sustained our bias in favor of an upward price move. The 1.6488 level is another area where price could find support.
The green horizontal line @ 1.6327 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts - using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels - to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today's up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

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