Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Today on GBPUSD – Are the bears losing total control?

On the Daily chart above, we could observe that the bulls are shattering a number of resistance levels. The most recent of these levels was a resistance-confluence: the combination of a Daily swing high @ 1.6468 (which we've highlighted using the lower blue broken line), and the upper edge of the downward or bearish channel. This resistance level @ 1.6468 managed to hold the bulls throughout yesterday, which resulted in a reversal candle formation (doji). However, the doji only succeeded in creating a false signal as the bulls, by the early hours of today, ignored the doji and surged further. It’s noteworthy that this recent bulls’ move is not without a strong fundamental sentiment: the recent equity market gains have been encouraging risk-taking, which favors the euro, and other so-called higher-yielding currencies. However, the bulls still have a lot to prove to nullify the overall bearish sentiment.
In all, from a day-trade perspective, we’ll still have to go with the bulls for now, until we start receiving contrary signals. The next critical resistance level is the most recent Weekly swing high @ 1.6741 (which we've highlighted using the upper blue broken line). The 1.6741 level is also acting as the area where we have both right and left shoulders of the Head & Shoulders formation; and that makes it a very significant level.

On the H4 chart above, price has broken the most recent swing high @ 1.6488 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line) upward. That sustains our bias in favor of an upward price move. The green horizontal line @ 1.6327 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts - using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels - to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today's up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

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