Today on USDCHF – Is the bullish retracement ending so soon?

On the Daily chart above, since late September, price has been having a bullish retracement, in a downtrend. We anticipated that price would travel upward toward the upper edge of the downward or bearish channel before any major resistance. However, the most recent Daily swing high @ 1.0387 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line) seems to be a strong resistance level that price is struggling to break upward – decisively: In the past couple of trading days, price had formed reversal candle formations (a doji & a quasi railway track) around the 1.0387 level. Consequently, price might be getting set to continue its downward move. To buttress a downward bias, price recently breached Friday’s low @ 1.0308 (not highlighted to avoid cluttered chart). In all, our current bias tends toward a bearish move, but the coast is quite unclear: conservative traders might prefer to refrain from taking trades, for now.

On the H4 chart above, price has broken a recent swing low @ 1.0336 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. That automatically shifts our bias in favor of a downward price move. However, the current H4 price action strengthens our view that the coast is somewhat unclear: price is struggling to stay comfortably below the broken swing low. It would be much preferable to see a clean break before seeking an Hourly Short trade setup.
The white horizontal line @ 1.0435 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, for the more aggressive ones among us, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.