Monday, February 1, 2010

Today on USDCHF – Daily and H4 charts support Long trades, but…

On the Daily chart above, virtually throughout last week, price was in a very strong bullish mode, breaking in the process a previous, critical resistance confluence: the combination of a downward or bearish trend-line (the red solid line) and the most recent Daily swing high @ 1.0494 (identified by the yellow arrow). As also discussed on Friday, last week, the Daily chart of the USDCHF pair is forming higher-highs and higher-lows, which could be observed within an upward or bullish channel. All the above observations keep telling us is that the bulls are firmly in control. Hence our bias, from a day-trade perspective, remains bullish and we expect price to travel toward the upper edge of the bullish channel before encountering any major obstacle.
However, while our bias remains in favor of an upward move, to be more convinced of the bulls’ resolve to keep up the momentum, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to wait for price-break above the previous trading day’s high – Friday’s high @ 1.0641 (not highlighted) before seeking Hourly Long trade setups.

On the H4 chart above, price broke, at that time, the most recent swing high @ 1.0546 (which we've highlighted using the lower blue broken line) upward. That sustained our bias in favor of an upward price move. However, as mentioned on the Daily chart, before seeking Hourly Long trade setups, we would prefer to see price break above the most recent swing high – also Friday’s high @ 1.0641 (which we've highlighted using the upper blue broken line).
The green horizontal line @ 1.0480 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels – to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today's up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

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