Today on USDJPY – Would the bulls break the bearish channel?

On the Daily chart above, we would observe price is still trapped within the downward or bearish channel, which we started observing since the early weeks of this year, 2010. Currently, in an overall bearish trend, the bulls are attempting to break decisively above the channel. Supporting the possibility of the bulls escaping the channel is the recent price-break above the previous day’s high @ 90.13 (not highlighted). However, it’s rather too early to conclude the bulls have finally broken through as the resistance pressure around the upper edge of the bearish channel might eventually subdue them before the close of today’s (also this week’s) trading hours.
From a day-trade perspective, our bias is bullish, but, based on the analysis above, more conservative traders might prefer to stay off this pair till next week. Less conservative traders might still be able to rely on the H4 price action to make their decisions on whether to seek Long trade setups on the Hourly charts or not.

On the H4 chart above, price has broken the most recent swing high – also yesterday’s high @ 90.13 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line) upward. That sustains our bias in favor of an upward price move. However, on the H4 chart, we could also observe more clearly price action around the bearish channel discussed on the Daily chart. Price, at the moment, is probably within a resistance-area, hence, there’s the need to be cautious. Again, while less aggressive traders might have to wait till next week to trade this currency pair, more aggressive traders might only wait for a clear H4 candle-close above the resistance confluence of the 90.13 level and the upper edge of the bearish channel.
The green horizontal line @ 89.56 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, in case we have a clearer coast, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels – to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today's up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.