Monday, February 15, 2010

Today on GBPUSD – Would the range trading on this currency pair continue?

On the Daily chart above, we could observe the GBPUSD pair settled into range trading throughout last week. Price hit the lower edge of the downward or bearish channel only to get stalled as the bulls were unable to garner enough momentum to send price back toward the upper edge of the channel. Currently, price is stuck between the most recent Daily swing high @ 1.5763 (which we've highlighted using the upper blue broken line) – on the upper side – and a support confluence of the channel’s lower edge and the year-low @ 1.5533 (which we've highlighted using the lower blue broken line) – on the lower side.
Consequently, while our day-trade bias leans toward the bulls, we need a clear break above the 1.5763 level to be convinced of the bulls’ resolve to push price northward.
Also, today is a Bank Holiday in the US, so let’s keep in mind the possibility of thin volume in U.S. trade.

On the H4 chart above, price is yet to break the most recent swing high @ 1.5707 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line) upward. That buttresses our view that traders are currently indecisive on whether to react to the critical support confluence discussed on the Daily chart and push price northward or succumb to the lingering bearish pressure and continue southward. In all, as also mentioned on the Daily chart, our day-trade bias reluctantly favors the bulls; but we need further confirmation to be more convinced of the bullish retracement.
The green horizontal line @ 1.5579 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, in case of a clearer coast, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels – to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows.

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