Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Today on GBPUSD – Daily and H4 charts support Long trades, but…

On the Daily chart above, we had a relatively strong signal on Monday that the bears might be suspending their onslaught as Monday’s trading hours closed as a strong “Doji” (a strong reversal candle pattern) around the lower edge of a downward or bearish channel. Virtually throughout yesterday, Tuesday, the bulls were fully in control and they held on to their gains as yesterday’s candle closed as a strong bull-candle. From a day-trade perspective, our bias has shifted in favor of the bulls and we expect price to continue its upward move toward the important resistance level – the most recent Daily swing low @ 1.5849 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line).
However, to be more convinced of the bulls’ readiness to keep on challenging the overall bears’ dominance, we would like to see price break above the previous day’s high @ 1.5746 (not highlighted).

On the H4 chart above, price broke, at that time, the most recent swing high @ 1.5659 (which we've highlighted using the lower blue broken line) upward. That shifted our bias in favor of an upward price move. However, as mentioned on the Daily chart, before seeking Hourly Long trade setups, we would prefer to see price break above the most recent swing high – also yesterday’s high @ 1.5746 (which we've highlighted using the upper blue broken line).
The green horizontal line @ 1.5561 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels – to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today's up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

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