Wednesday, February 17, 2010

Today on USDJPY – Daily and H4 charts support Long trades, but…

On the Daily chart above, as expected yesterday, price continued moving upward to pause around the most recent Daily swing high @ 91.26 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line). If the 91.26 level happens to be a strong resistance area, we might see the bears forcing price to resume its longer term bearish trend. From a day-trade perspective however, our bias remains in support of the bulls – until we have enough reasons to change our view.
For now, all we know is: as a result of yesterday’s price activity, the previous day’s candle closed as a very strong bullish candle – breaching the 91.26 resistance level in the process. That suggested to us that the bulls probably have enough momentum to push price further upward. However, since price is yet to break decisively above the 91.26 level, to be convinced of a continued bullish move today, we would prefer to see price-break above the previous day’s high @ 91.36 (not highlighted) before seeking our Hourly long trade setups – supported by the H4 chart.

On the H4 chart above, yesterday, price broke the most recent swing high @ 90.50 (which we've highlighted using the lower blue broken line) upward. That shifted our bias in favor of an upward price move. Again, as with yesterday, we could observe price reaction to the critical resistance level @ 91.26 (that we've highlighted using the upper blue broken line), which we discussed on the Daily chart. Currently, we are seeing signs of a possible bearish move, which might end up becoming a major move – considering the longer term bearish scenario on higher time frame charts. Please let’s keep the level in mind.
The green horizontal line @ 90.14 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels – to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today's up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

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