Wednesday, February 3, 2010

Today on EURUSD – Daily and H4 charts support Long trades, but…

On the Daily chart above, as expected yesterday, the bulls took control of activities on the EURUSD pair in what we project to be just a bullish retracement in strong, longer term downward trend. We also discussed that, in case the bulls moved as anticipated, we expect the first critical resistance around the most recent Daily swing low @ 1.4028 (which we've highlighted using the lower blue broken line). Currently, price is around this 1.4028 level, hence we won’t be surprised to see the bulls’ move stalled. From a day-trade perspective, our bias remains bullish, but we need to be conscious of current price position – especially since the longer term trend supports the bears.
In case the bulls eventually break decisively above the 1.4028 level, the next critical resistance is expected around the most recent Daily swing high @ 1.4193 (which we've highlighted using the upper blue broken line). In all, with caution, our aim is to seek Hourly Long trade setups – supported by the H4 chart.

On the H4 chart above, yesterday, price broke the most recent swing high @ 1.3938 (which we've highlighted using the lower blue broken line) upward. That shifted our bias in favor of an upward price move. As discussed yesterday, another bullish sign supporting our daily bullish bias is the positive MACD Divergence observed on the H4 chart.
However, as mentioned on the Daily chart, the bigger picture shows a strong downtrend, and price is currently around a critical resistance level – the most recent Daily swing low @ 1.4028 (which we've highlighted on the H4 chart using the upper blue broken line). Again, this means the bears might attempt to resume their actions around this level – in case the currency pair is experiencing a shallow bullish retracement.
Altogether, for now, our bias remains bullish. The green horizontal line @ 1.3885 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels – to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today's up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

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