Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Today on USDJPY – Daily and H4 charts support Short trades.

On the Daily chart above, we would observe traders have been struggling to make a decisive move on the USDJPY pair since late last week when price hit the upper edge of the downward or bearish channel. By the end of yesterday, we had a sign suggesting the channel’s upper edge, as a resistance area, would probably aid the bears to resume their southward journey: yesterday’s candle closed within Friday’s candle – forming a reversal candle pattern (an “inside candle”) in the process, and, as earlier said, that gave us an indication that the bears might resume their activities. In addition, today’s price action has seen the break of yesterday’s low @ 89.90 (not highlighted).
From a day-trade perspective, our bias has shifted in favor of the bears. Although, the market is relatively sluggish at the moment, the coast seems relatively clear for us to seek Hourly Short trade setups – supported by the H4 chart.

On the H4 chart above, price has broken the most recent swing low – also yesterday’s low @ 89.90 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. That automatically shifts our bias in favor of a downward price move. We could observe, more clearly, price reaction at the upper edge of the bearish channel, which we discussed on the Daily chart: it suggests the resistance-strength the bulls are contending with around the area.
Also, we could observe the lull-mode the pair has been since yesterday. There’s the possibility of a big break toward either side, but, as earlier said, from a day-trade perspective, our bias is in favor of the bears.
The white horizontal line @ 90.09 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

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