Friday, January 29, 2010

Today on USDCHF – Daily and H4 charts support Long trades, but…

On the Daily chart above, from the overall perspective, the medium term bullish trend is quite obvious. Currently, the USDCHF pair is forming higher-highs and higher-lows, which could be observed within an upward or bullish channel. Strengthening the case for a continuous bullish move – possibly toward the upper edge of the bullish channel – is the bulls’ eventual break above a previous, critical resistance confluence: the combination of a downward or bearish trend-line (the red solid line) and the most recent Daily swing high @ 1.0494 (identified by the yellow arrow). Price had a relatively decisive break above the resistance confluence as yesterday’s candle closed above it as a bullish candle.
Based on the above observation, our bias remains in support of price moving upward; however, price’s current inability to break above the previous day’s high @ 1.0554 (not highlighted) is not a good sign supporting the bulls’ resolve to push further upward today. Preferably, we would like to see price break above the 1.0554 level before seeking Long trade setups on the Hourly chart – supported by the H4 chart.

On the H4 chart above, price is yet to break above the most recent swing high @ 1.0546 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line). That buttresses the need for us to exercise patience in seeking Long trade setups. Although our bias remains bullish, until price breaks above the 1.0546 level, it’s advisable not to long this pair.
Considering the time of this posting, and today being the last trading day of this week and month, there might not be much to do regarding this pair, today.
The green horizontal line @ 1.0474 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, in the unlikely event that the coast gets clearer today, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels – to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today's up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

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