Tuesday, February 2, 2010

Today on EURUSD – Daily and H4 charts support Long trades, but…

On the Daily chart above, we would observe the EURUSD pair has been in a strong longer term downtrend since November, last year; and no strong signal – fundamental or technical – indicate any imminent change of this trend. However, we are getting signals telling us there might be the possibility of a bullish retracement: For the first time in six trading days, yesterday’s candle closed as a bullish candle – forming a quasi reversal candle formation in the process – and that’s a good sign suggesting the bears might be going on a break. Hence, from a day trade perspective, we’re probably having the opportunity to take advantage of a possible bullish retracement by seeking Long trade setups on our Hourly charts – supported by the H4 chart.
In case the bulls move as anticipated, we expect the first critical resistance around the most recent Daily swing low @ 1.4028 (which we've highlighted using the lower blue broken line).

On the H4 chart above, price has breached the most recent swing high @ 1.3938 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line) upward. That shifts our bias in favor of an upward price move. Although, as explained on the Daily chart, price’s big picture is in a strong downtrend, but another bullish sign supporting our daily bullish bias is the positive MACD Divergence observed on the H4 chart. While keeping in mind the overall bearish trend, it is relatively safe, from a day-trade perspective, to seek Hourly Long trade setups.
The green horizontal line @ 1.3852 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels – to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today's up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

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