Thursday, February 11, 2010

Today on USDCHF – What next on this Currency Pair?

On the Daily chart above, earlier this week, on Tuesday, we anticipated a bearish retracement on this currency pair as we observed a reversal candle pattern, an “inside candle” at the upper edge of the upward or bullish channel. We also concluded that the bearish retracement might end up being a shallow one if the critical support level – the most recent Daily swing high @ 1.0641 (which we've highlighted using the lower blue broken line) proves to be an insurmountable hurdle for the bears; and currently, the 1.0641 support is proving to be just that: an “insurmountable hurdle.” Since the late trading hours on Tuesday, price has tested and re-tested the 1.0641 level in an attempt to break decisively below it, but, up till now, it’s still an unfortunate story for the bears.
From, a day-trade perspective, our bias is reluctantly aligning with the longer term bullish trend because a couple of resistance levels still need to be broken for us to be fully convinced of the bulls readiness to resume their dominance. The hurdles include yesterday’s high @ 1.0720 (not highlighted), and the potential resistance confluence of the upper edge of channel and the most recent Daily swing high @ 1.0794 (which we've highlighted using the upper blue broken line).

On the H4 chart above, we could observe that price is yet to break above the most recent swing high – also yesterday’s high @ 1.0720 (which we've highlighted using the lower blue broken line) upward. That buttresses our position that the bulls are yet to fully resume their activity. Hence, in line with what we discussed on the Daily chart, we would like to see the bulls break above the 1.0720 level.
The green horizontal line @ 1.0617 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, in case we have a clearer coast, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels – to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today's up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

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