Today on USDJPY – NFP Rules.

Pls NOTE: Again, if there’s one particular day in every month that trending method/pattern traders should be wary of trading most, it has to be the first Fridays of every month when the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report is usually released.
While I’ll go ahead to give my personal analysis on the USDJPY pair, please, let’s bear in mind that, regardless of any technical analyses, NFP usually rules today.

On the Daily chart above, as discussed yesterday, since the beginning of November, the USDJPY currency pair (as well as other major pairs) has been consolidating. Price is still within the symmetrical triangle we identified. Again, while our bias is still in favor of a downtrend, we still hold on to the opinion that we would like to see price break below certain support levels to convince us of the bears readiness to resume their activities: the first of the support levels is the lower edge of the symmetrical triangle, and the second is the most recent Daily swing low @ 89.43 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line). As concluded earlier, our bias remains bearish, but, currently, the coast isn’t just clear enough for us to seek Short trade set-ups.

On the H4 chart above, price action – much more than yesterday’s – is buttressing our view that the pair is currently in an indecisive mode. In addition to the symmetrical triangle identified on the Daily chart, we could identify a similar formation on the H4 chart. Furthermore, price is stuck between the most recent swing high @ 91.30 (which we've highlighted using the white horizontal line) and the most recent swing low @ 89.98 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line). These price actions are simply telling us to stay away from this pair for now.
Personally, this is a very good example of how technical and fundamental analyses can complement each other. For today, the coast isn’t just clear enough for us (as trend traders) to seek any trade set-ups – at least from a day-trade perspective.