On the Daily chart above, we would observe that since two weeks ago – precisely Wednesday 11 – when price peaked @ 1.5047 to form the “second top” of a possible Double Top formation (pointed out by the right green arrow), price has been in a consolidation pattern – within a narrow downward or bearish channel formation. At the time the consolidation started, similar to most of life situations, we didn’t have enough information to know it had started, as that would have aided our decisions. It’s during periods like this that individuals crave the sixth sense to see into the future. However, in the absence of sixth sense, we’ll always make do with what is readily at our disposal: the real-time information. Current price action is telling us that the market is in a consolidation mode, hence, from a day-trade perspective, it’s probably advisable to keep off any trending method till we have a clearer coast. We would be waiting for price to break decisively above or below the bearish channel to make further decisions. We don’t know when that would happen, it may or may not happen today; we just have to wait.
On the H4 chart above, price has broken the most recent swing high @ 1.4934 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line) upward. That sustains our bias in favor of an upward price move. However, as we’ve discussed at length on the Daily chart, current bigger picture isn’t supporting any strong bullish movement for now, hence, regardless of the H4 swing break, it’s preferable to keep off any day-trade trending methods for now. Although, the coast is not clear at the moment, let’s keep in mind that the green horizontal line @ 1.4800 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact.
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