Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Today on GBPUSD – What now with this currency pair?

On the Daily chart above, yesterday, while we held on to our bearish bias, the analysis was concluded with this statement: “…the bears are not out of the woods yet: we have a strong support level – the most recent Daily swing low @ 1.6249…” Since yesterday, this support level @ 1.6249 (which we've highlighted using the lower blue broken line) has proved itself to be a very unyielding level: After price hit a low of 1.6261 yesterday, it sprang upward to close at a much higher price of 1.6419. Earlier today, price broke above the previous day’s high @ 1.6454 (not highlighted). These price actions are good enough to shift our bias – from a day-trade perspective – to bullish. However, apart from our overall bearish bias on the GBPUSD pair, the bulls might be having a daunting task of pushing further: a number of resistance levels must be broken, two of these levels are a downward or bearish trend-line (the red dashed line) and the most recent Daily swing high @ 1.6603 (which we've highlighted using the upper blue broken line). Personally, though our bias, from a day-trade perspective, has shifted to favor an upward move, the challenges the bulls are currently facing are enough to make more conservative traders refrain from seeking Long trades for now.

On the H4 chart above, price has broken the most recent swing high @ 1.6476 (which we've highlighted using the lower blue broken line) upward. That automatically shifts our bias in favor of an upward price move – from a day-trade perspective.
A couple of resistance levels, which we discussed on the Daily chart as possible hurdles for further upward movement, are also shown on the H4 chart: a downward or bearish trend-line (the red dashed line) and the most recent Daily swing high @ 1.6603 (which we've highlighted using the upper blue broken line). Currently price is around the bearish trend-line, hence there’s a possibility the bulls are already in a “danger” zone.
Again, strictly based on our primary parameters, our current bias is bullish; but the challenges the bulls are facing, as earlier said, are enough to make more conservative traders refrain from seeking Long trades for now.
The green horizontal line @ 1.6261 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts - using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels - to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today's up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

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