Friday, November 13, 2009

Today on EURUSD – Daily and H4 charts support Short trades.

On the Daily chart above, yesterday, as we anticipated, price continued its downward move and ended as a strong bearish candle. We expect further bearish movement today; however, we would like to see price break below the previous day’s low @ 1.4820 (not highlighted) to be more convinced of the bears’ resolve. If the bears succeed in breaching the 1.4820 level, then, we would still have the lower edge of the bullish channel as the next critical support area, which is currently more than 100 pips away from current price position; hence, from a day trade perspective, we seem to still have enough room to seek further Short trade setups on the Hourly chart.

On the H4 chart above, also yesterday, price broke a recent swing low @ 1.4952 (which we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line) downward. That automatically shifted our bias in favor of a downward price move. However, as we discussed earlier on the Daily chart, the previous day’s low @ 1.4820, which is seen on the H4 chart as the most recent swing low (highlighted with the lower blue broken line), is a support level we would like to see price break below before we seek Hourly setups.
The white horizontal line @ 1.5047 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

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