Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Today on EURUSD – Daily and H4 charts support Long trades, but…

On the Daily chart above, we would observe the EURUSD currency pair has been trending upward for a number of days now. From a day-trade perspective, that’s a clear sign that our bias should remain bullish. However, price is currently in a situation where we would like to see further confirmation that the bulls are ready to push higher: price is yet to breach the previous day’s high @ 1.5019 (not highlighted). In addition, the bulls’ advance is getting very close to a critical resistance level – the year-high as well as the most recent Daily swing high @ 1.5061 (that we've highlighted using the upper blue broken line) – which is less than a hundred pips away. While our bias is in favor of an upward price move, the coast isn’t too clear; hence, let’s be very cautious in case we decide to seek Long trade setups.

On the H4 chart above, price has broken a recent swing high @ 1.4917 (which we've highlighted using the lowest blue broken line) upward. That sustains our bias in favor of an upward price move.
The previous day’s high @ 1.5019 (that we've highlighted using the middle blue broken line), which we discussed earlier on the daily chart as a resistance level we would like to see price break above, is seen on the H4 chart as the most recent swing high. The very critical resistance level – the year-high @ 1.5061 (that we've highlighted using the uppermost blue broken line), which is also discussed on the Daily chart, is highlighted.
Again, though our bias is in favor of an upward price move, the coast isn’t too clear. We’ve got only about 40-pip gap between the previous day’s high @ 1.5019 and the year-high @ 1.5061; therefore, even if price eventually strengthens our bullish bias by breaking above the previous day’s high, by that time, price would’ve moved much closer to the yeah-high level – an area that could easily be considered as the bears’ zone.
It’s probably better to stay away from this pair for now; but, as earlier said, in case we decide to seek Hourly Long trade setups, let’s be very cautious.

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