Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Today on GBPUSD – Final days for the bears?

On the Daily chart above, since early this month, price actions have been showing grave signs that the end of longer term bears’ reign is imminent. Early last week, the bears attempted to start regaining lost ground, however, recent price actions showed their efforts were futile: On Monday, last week, price broke above, at that time, the very critical resistance level @ 1.6741 (which we've highlighted using the lowest blue broken line), but couldn’t stay above the level as it met heavy resistance pressure. The bulls, however, showed their resolve as they resumed the upward push by the end of last week. Currently, price has decisively closed above the 1.6741 level, and has also breached the most recent Daily swing high @ 1.6842 (which we've highlighted using the middle blue broken line). Price pattern is now beginning to show a more visible higher-high-higher-low formation. These price actions, combined with some fundamental reports including the Federal Reserve Chairman’s speech yesterday, are strong signs supporting the bulls.
However, after all’s said and done, as emphasized last week, there remains the last barrier that price must break above to completely nullify our overall bearish bias: the 1.7041 resistance level (which we've highlighted using the uppermost blue broken line) where we have the “head” of, at the moment, the very weak Head & Shoulders formation, the year-high, as well as the most recent Monthly chart swing high. While, from a day-trade perspective, our bias is currently bullish, let’s bear in mind that we’re still relatively within the bears’ zone.
Please NOTE that it would be preferable to see price break above the previous day’s high @ 1.6877 (not highlighted) before seeking any Long trade setup today.

On the H4 chart above, price has broken the previous most recent swing high @ 1.6799 (which we've highlighted using the lower blue broken line) upward. That shifts our bias in favor of an upward price move. The previous day’s high @ 1.6877 (that we've highlighted using the upper blue broken line), which we discussed on the Daily chart, is seen on the H4 chart as the most recent swing high. Again, before we seek Hourly Long trade setups, we would prefer to see this level broken.
The green horizontal line @ 1.6668 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts - using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels - to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today's up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

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