Thursday, November 26, 2009

Today on EURUSD – Daily and H4 charts support Long trades, but...

On the Daily chart above, yesterday, we witnessed price making a new year-high @ 1.5143 (not highlighted). Price broke two previous critical resistance levels: the most recent Daily swing high @ 1.5047 (also not highlighted) and the previous year-high @ 1.5061 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line). Those price actions were strong enough to sustain our day-trade bullish bias and shift our longer term bias to supporting an uptrend scenario. Currently, price is probably having a bearish retracement. It is, at the moment, around the previous year-high level @ 1.5061, which we expect to now act as a good support level. If the current retracement is shallow, the 1.5061 level might help the bulls resume their movement. The main thing we’re interested in is when we would be prompted to continue seeking Long trade setups on our Hourly charts – supported by H4 charts; hence, we would like to see price break above the year-high – also the previous day’s high @ the 1.5143 level.

Please NOTE: Let’s keep in mind that today is Thanksgiving holiday in the US, so we might experience thin trading volume, especially during the New York session.

On the H4 chart above, the previously broken swing high @ 1.4987 (which we've highlighted using the lowest blue broken line) still remains the most recent swing high price broke above. That sustains our bias in favor of an upward price move. The previous year-high @ 1.5061 (that we've highlighted using the middle blue broken line), which we discussed on the Daily chart as a level we expect to now act as a good support level – if the current retracement is shallow – is seen on the H4 chart.
The new year-high – also the previous day’s high @ 1.5143 (which we've highlighted using the uppermost blue broken line) is seen as the most recent swing high on the H4 chart. Again, as earlier discussed, we would like to see price break above this level before seeking Long trade setups.

However, we still need our Hourly charts - using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels - to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today's up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

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