Monday, November 9, 2009

Today on GBPUSD – The bears seem to be surrendering.

On the Daily chart above, things aren’t looking good in any way for the bears. In August, this year, based on higher time frame charts (Monthly and Weekly charts), the bears gave a strong signal that they were taking over from the bulls, however, recent price actions are giving grave signs that the bears might have to remain “subservient” for a longer period. Virtually throughout last month, October, we were discussing the critical resistance level @ 1.6741 (which we've highlighted using the lower blue broken line) where we have both right and left shoulders of the Head & Shoulders formation. We concluded that price break above the 1.6741 level would signal a strong possibility of bulls pushing farther. Earlier today, this 1.6741 level was breached; hence our longer term bearish bias is floundering.
However, there remains the last barrier that price must break above to completely nullify our overall bearish bias: the 1.7041 resistance level (which we've highlighted using the upper blue broken line) where we have the “head” of the Head & Shoulders formation, as well as the most recent Monthly chart swing high. Price is still a couple of hundred pips away from this critical resistance level; hence, in all, from a day-trade perspective, our bias is bullish.

On the H4 chart above, price has broken the most recent swing high @ 1.6634 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line) upward. That sustains our bias in favor of an upward price move.
The green horizontal line @ 1.6516 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts - using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels - to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today's up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

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