Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Today on EURUSD – The bulls, probably, are now in the bears’ zone

On the Daily chart above, yesterday, we concluded that the EURUSD currency pair has been trending upward for a number of days, which translated to a continuous bullish bias, but was in a situation where we would like to see further confirmation that the bulls were ready to push higher. We are still, more or less, of the same view: little price action has happened since yesterday, but nevertheless, early price action today is good enough to warrant further review.
Price has broken above the previous day’s high @ 1.5020 (not highlighted) – almost same as penultimate day’s high @ 1.5019. That signals the possibility of further bullish movement. However, as also discussed yesterday, the bulls’ advance is getting critically close to a critical resistance level – the year-high, as well as the most recent Daily swing high @ 1.5061 (that we've highlighted using the upper blue broken line) – which is now less than 40 pips away. While our bias is in favor of an upward price move, the coast isn’t too clear; hence, let’s be very cautious.

On the H4 chart above, price has broken the most recent swing high – also the previous day’s high @ 1.5020 (which we've highlighted using the lower blue broken line) upward. That sustains our bias in favor of an upward price move.
The very critical resistance level – the year-high @ 1.5061 (that we've highlighted using the upper blue broken line), which we’ve been discussing since yesterday, is highlighted on the H4 chart. Again, similar to yesterday, though our bias is in favor of an upward price move, the coast isn’t clear. We’ve got only about 40-pip gap between the just broken most recent swing high – the previous day’s high @ 1.5020 and the year-high @ 1.5061; therefore, even though price-break above the 1.5020 level strengthens our bullish bias, price is now gravely close to the yeah-high level – an area that could easily be considered as the bears’ zone. It’s probably better to stay away from this pair for now till the coast is clearer.
However, let’s keep in mind that the green horizontal line @ 1.4937 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

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