Today on EURUSD – Daily and H4 charts support Short trades, but…

On the Daily chart above, as anticipated yesterday, price collapsed further but was unable to close decisively below the critical support level – the most recent Daily swing low @ 1.4028 (which we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line): a sign that the bears were having some difficulties. However, by the early hours of today, the bears gathered more momentum to break further beneath the 1.4028 level – breaking below the previous day’s low @ 1.3992 (not highlighted) in the process; but again, based on current price action, the bears have been forced to retreat as price is now back at the 1.4028 area.
What the above scenario is simply telling us is that the bears are ready to push further downward, but the bulls are equally resolved not to make it a cake walk for them. Again, from a day-trade perspective, our bias remains bearish, but the coast isn’t too clear. Today’s candle’s close should offer more information about where price might be heading.

On the H4 chart above, price has broken the most recent swing low @ 1.4020 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. That automatically sustains our bias in favor of a downward price move. However, to buttress our “caveat” observation on the Daily chart, we would observe a waving positive MACD divergence on the H4 chart which means a bullish retracement might be imminent. Also, we would observe that, though price broke sharply below the 1.4020 most recent swing low, it’s seriously struggling to stay comfortably below it. We need to exercise patience on this pair for now.
The white horizontal line @ 1.4178 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, in the case of a clearer coast, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.