Today on USDJPY – NFP Rules.

Pls NOTE: As always, if there’s one particular day in every month that trending method/pattern traders should be wary of trading most, it has to be the first Fridays of every month when the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report is usually released.
While I’ll go ahead to give my personal analysis on the USDJPY pair, please, let’s bear in mind that, regardless of any technical analyses, NFP usually rules today.

On the Daily chart above, we would observe a steep upward movement in price, which is captured within a relatively narrow upward or bullish channel. In line with the longer term upward trend, the bulls were fully in charge yesterday. However, early price action today is showing the possibility of, at least, a shallow bearish retracement as price couldn’t break above previous day’s high @ 93.76 (not highlighted). Also, though barely noticeable, we would observe a waving negative MACD divergence if we look closely. That is a sign supporting the possibility of a bearish retracement.
Pls NOTE: A waving MACD divergence is yet to be a valid divergence; hence it’s a relatively weak indicator.

On the H4 chart above, price broke, at that time, the most recent swing high @ 92.73 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) upward. That automatically sustained our bias in favor of an upward price move. However, to buttress our “bearish retracement” observation on the Daily chart, the waving negative MACD Divergence is more noticeable on the H4. Again, in line with the longer term upward trend, our bias remains bullish, but current price action is telling us to exercise patience in seeking long trade setups on the this currency pair as it seems the bears are resolved to fight back – even if it’s only for a while.
The green horizontal line @ 92.09 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it – in the absence of any new and higher swing low – our bullish or upward bias remains intact; but, again, today is “NFP Day”, please let’s keep that in mind.