Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Today on GBPUSD – Daily and H4 charts support Long trades, but…

On the Daily chart above, as anticipated, the bulls continued their movement yesterday in a very decisive manner, and earlier price action today showed their resolve to keep moving on. However, price is currently around another resistance level – a Daily swing high @ 1.6409 (which we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line). Considering the very steep nature of the ongoing bullish move, which started more than a week ago, it’s reasonable to expect at least a shallow bearish retracement, and the 1.6409 level might be that temporarily insurmountable hurdle that would trigger the bearish retracement. But for now, all we know is the bulls are still fully in control, and consequently, our bias remains bullish - except that we should tread with extra caution i.e. we should be more conscious of subsequent price actions on the lower time frame charts.

On the H4 chart above, price has broken the most recent swing high @ 1.6378 (which we've highlighted using the lower blue broken line) upward. That sustains our bias in favor of an upward price move. However, we would observe price is currently reacting to the 1.6409 resistance level (that we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line), which we discussed on the Daily chart. For now, we can’t deduce much, but once the current H4 candle is fully formed, it could give a clue on where price might be heading.
The green horizontal line @ 1.6209 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels – to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today's up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

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