Today on USDJPY – Daily and H4 charts support Short trades, but…

On the Daily chart above, the bears seem set to continue their “campaign” with price breaching the most recent swing low @ 90.71 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. The whole downward move that was probably triggered, partly, by a not too visible negative MACD divergence could possibly be the end of the bulls’ reign that started around late November, last year. Based on the big picture (please refer to your Monthly charts), this current bearish move could as well be the resumption of a very long term downward trend that the USDJPY currency pair has been experiencing for years.
However, from a day-trade perspective, although price has breached the 90.71 support, which signifies the possibility of price’s downward movement continuing, it (price) is yet to break below it (90.71 support) decisively; hence, more conservative traders might prefer to see today’s candle close below the support level before seeking Hourly Short trade setups – supported by the H4 chart. Unfortunately, that means keeping off this pair for today.

On the H4 chart above, price has broken the most recent swing low @ 90.83 (which we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line) downward. That automatically sustains our bias in favor of a downward price move. The 90.71 support level (that we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line), which we discussed on the Daily chart is also seen on the H4 chart. We could observe the 90.83 and 90.71 support levels are rather close; that strengthens the notion that the bears are currently around a very strong support area and it would be preferable to see price break below the area decisively to be more convinced of the bears resolve – as alluded to on the Daily chart,.
The white horizontal line @ 92.03 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.