Wednesday, January 6, 2010

Today on GBPUSD – Daily and H4 charts support Short trades, but...

On the Daily chart above, in line with our expectation yesterday, price continued its bearish move and closed as a bear-bodied candle which, to an extent, signifies the strength of the bears. Earlier today, price collapsed further to break below the previous day’s low @ 1.5964 (not highlighted): another good sign confirming the downward price movement, most likely, still has momentum. However, currently, from a day-trade point of view, price seems to be in a bullish retracement; hence we might have to wait for a clearer coast before placing our Short trades on this currency pair.
The Hourly lower-high, lower-low price formation, which is a condition that must be met before seeking Short trades – based on the primary method discussed on this thread – would be a good way of determining the appropriate time to start seeking today’s Short trades.
As previously mentioned, once the bears resume their actions, we expect the next important support level to be the lower edge of the “minor” bearish channel.

On the H4 chart above, yesterday, price broke the most recent swing low @ 1.6056 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. That automatically sustained our bias in favor of a downward price move. As discussed on the Daily chart, analyzing from a day-trade perspective, we would observe price is currently having a bullish retracement; hence, a clearer coast (as discussed above) should be helpful before seeking Short trades today.
The white horizontal line @ 1.6152 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

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