Friday, January 22, 2010

Today on USDCHF – Daily and H4 charts support Short trades.

On the Daily chart above, we would observe that yesterday’s price action ended in a reversal candle pattern formed around the resistance area (or a quasi resistance confluence) consisting of a Weekly swing high @ 1.0452 (which we’ve highlighted on the Daily chart using the blue broken line) and the upper edge of a symmetrical triangle formation. Although, that single action in itself is a strong signal that a bearish retracement is imminent or has commenced, price breaking below the previous day’s low @ 1.0402 has further strengthened the possibility of price travelling southward. As expected, our bias now favors the bears.
In case price eventually swoons, we expect the lower edge of the symmetrical triangle to be the next strong support level.

On the H4 chart above, price has broken the most recent swing low @ 1.0419 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. That automatically shifts our bias in favor of a downward price move.
The white horizontal line @ 1.0494 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

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