Today on USDJPY – Daily and H4 charts support Short trades, but…

On the Daily chart above, we would observe the USDJPY pair has been in a steep downtrend for more than a week. Recent Daily swing low has been broken southward. However, the current price formation isn’t too clear – from my perspective: price seems to be in a tight downward channel, and with yesterday’s candle formation giving us a weak sign that the bears are still somewhat in charge, our bias is still in favor of a continuous downward price movement. To buttress our bearish bias, price has broken the previous day low @ 94.19 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. Let’s expect price to move further downward toward the lower edge of the downward channel. The only “but” today is simply based on the not-too-clear current price formation.

On the H4 chart above, price broke the most recent swing low – also the previous day low @ 94.19 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. That automatically sustained our bias in favor of a downward price move. The white horizontal line @ 95.28 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

P.S.:
As I’m about posting this analysis, a Short USDJPY trade set-up seems to be forming on the Hourly chart with initial Stop Loss @ 94.71; and Primary Profit Target @ 93.96. If you’re able to identify a strong confluence of resistance, please consider taking the trade.
However, please remember to keep your risk per trade low: We MUST NEVER assume we KNOW where price is going next!
Also, always keep in mind any major news releases. Be wary of possible price volatility during these periods.